Tim Cossar, chief executive of the Tourism Industry Association, said that amid the economic uncertainty, he was getting mixed reports about domestic bookings from the summer holiday destinations.
Retailers and tourism operators planned to offer significant discounts to attract consumers as Christmas approached, but instead of gift items, canny purchasers would buy vouchers to use at the Boxing Day sales, he said.
Nick Tuffley, ASB chief economist, said more shoppers would take advantage of post-Christmas sales, and that declining mortgage rates were positive for consumer spending.
People rolling their mortgages between now and the festive season could find they had more money.
Petrol prices had dropped, reducing the "wallet-pinching pressure", but the financial and markets crisis would keep consumers cautious.
Mr Tuffley said discounting had been more prevalent and he expected this would continue during Christmas shopping.
Linda Trainer, general manager of shopping centre management at Westfield, said its centres were viewing the Christmas season "optimistically", while Rod Duke, group managing director of Briscoes, was conservative.
Across the group's brands, which also encompassed Rebel Sport, and Living and Giving, he was looking at the pre-Christmas period "aggressively" in terms of cutting prices.
"Customers are doing it pretty tough in the suburbs with petrol, housing interest rates, food and inflation."
Boxing Day was Briscoes' biggest day of the year, he said.
"A lot of gifts are given by way of vouchers and redemption day for us is December 26."
Michael Hill said there had been a "quietening" in his stores in some areas but that there was no pattern to trading, with some up and others down.
Mr Hill said he was not expecting a significant drop in Christmas sales throughout his international jewellery chain.
"Admittedly there's a lot of chaos but there are a lot of people living normal lives who have not invested in the sharemarket or taken large loans and seem not badly affected so far," he said.
"What we found in 1987 and other downturns is that the jewellery trade does better than most because the very big purchases like the new boat, home or new kitchen are put on the backburner, but people still need to do something for Christmas, so they buy a nice piece of jewellery - it's usually the first thing that's thought of.
"So we've ridden very well in times like this."
Mr Hill said well-run businesses do better in downturns than those that were "a little loose".
"We have a lot of experience, having done the same format 250 times - we've proved a model in four countries - and that makes us more recession-proof than most other retailers because we have a global experience; which means we have taken a lot of hard knocks to arrive where we are."
Elizabeth Higgs, marketing manager at supermarket chain Progressive, said shoppers had taken to private labels such as Home Brand, Signature Range and Select, and staple Christmas products would be sold in these ranges.
Customers had developed champagne tastes on beer incomes, she said, and would want some luxury at Christmas.
Shoppers were focused on bargain hunting, particularly for wine specials.
"We'll continue to deliver good offers on wine up to Christmas."
Retailers not offering good deals during Christmas would be "ineffective", she said.
Barry Halberg, of the Retailers Association, said retail was "pretty flat", and this would continue into the New Year, driven by international factors.
He hoped tax cuts effective on October 1 would help with the "reasonable" Christmas retailers were hoping for.
As with Christmas shopping, holidays were another discretionary spend.
Robyn Bolton, manager of Destination Northland, was hearing of advance bookings being 10% to 20% down but said those mostly came from overseas visitors and the region was more dependent on domestic tourism than international visitors during Christmas.
She did not think domestic visitor numbers would be down, only that holidaymakers might spend less, looking for cheaper options.
Jim Archibald, chief executive of Tourism Coromandel, said the word within the industry was that business was soft.
"People are waiting to see what's going to happen . . .
"It's pretty uncharted waters.
"What will happen is probably in the lap of the gods."
Mr Archibald expected to see good holiday deals.
"It's a time when you can negotiate.
"There will be more interest in well-priced accommodation than at the higher-priced end.
"It may be that some of the activities operators suffer as well."
