New Zealand's immigration data for May is showing a significant change in fortune for transtasman population growth.
Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) figures released yesterday showed annual net migration for the year ended May at nearly 58,000 compared with forecasts of about 57,400.
Monthly net migration was 5140 compared with 4700 in April and forecasts of 4700.
People arriving on student and work visas continued to dominate the numbers.
Of the 15,218 increase in permanent and long-term visitor arrivals in the year to May, 8072 were on student visas, 3970 were on work visas, 1979 were New Zealanders and Australians and 904 were for residency.
BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said taking the past three months, total net migrant arrival numbers had annualised at nearly 60,000.
''At this rate, the resident population will be boosted by 1.3%. That's significant.''
New Zealand's annual population growth was 1.66% in September last year and strengthened to 1.84% in March this year.
Two years ago, it was just 0.7%.
The sudden surge in net immigration - from about zero in early 2013 to record highs now - could be thought of as almost tripling New Zealand's population growth, he said.
It was also another point of contrast with Australia.
''In the `lucky country', population growth was slowing to an estimated 1.53% in September last year, with fourth-quarter figures due this week, partly on the back of falling immigration.
''As such, it's another chicken that is coming home to roost for Australia with it having experienced very strong, immigration-boosted population growth in the few years following the global financial crisis whereas New Zealand didn't.''
The other thing to keep in mind on the migration front was what the Reserve Bank expected, Mr Ebert said.
In its June monetary policy statement, it forecast the annualised immigration rate - in working-age terms - to be about 48,000 in the June quarter of 2015, abating to 37,000 in September and 29,000 in December.
Those figures looked likely to be overshot, at least in the near future.
That would represent an extra pressure on the housing market and especially in Auckland, with yesterday's figures showing 46% of New Zealand's net immigration in the 12 months to May turned up in Auckland.
Those turning up in Canterbury were more in line with its population weight at 11%.
Higher than anticipated migration would also represent a lot more people to absorb into the labour market.
The Reserve Bank's recent monetary policy actions revealed a tendency for it to subjugate the importance of housing market overvaluation issues to those of considerations of the broader macro-economy, Mr Ebert said.
''In short, an upward drift in the unemployment rate would trump high and rising house price inflation monetary policy-wise.
''But it should be harder for the bank to see any trade-offs in the booming tourist arrivals. These continued to be outright strong in May, despite thoughts of a collapse in number post the February-March Cricket World Cup.''
The largest driver of tourism growth of late, China, continued to ''barrel on'' the most, driving total short-term visitor arrivals in May up 10% on a year ago, with those from China 45% higher, he said.
There was some irony in tourism growth being driven the most by the trading nation otherwise causing the most angst for New Zealand through the likes of dairy and forestry.
