Unchanged OCR down to ‘uncertainty’

Cameron Bagrie.
Cameron Bagrie.
The Reserve Bank adopted a neutral tone when keeping its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75% but, importantly, indicated the rate was likely to stay at the record low rate for a considerable period.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said there were some tweaks to the language but, by in large, the message and tone were similar to the May monetary policy statement.

"The Reserve Bank is mindful of the uncertainty facing the global growth and inflation outlook. It maintains a positive view towards domestic growth despite the latest GDP disappointments."

The central bank was watchful with regards to housing and, while it expected inflation eventually to settle at the target midpoint of 2%,  it did not yet appear convinced on that front, he said.

There were several moving parts to the economy, but caution prevailed, Mr Bagrie said.

Following a little more comfort in May, the Reserve Bank acknowledged the dollar had risen since then and said a lower dollar would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradeable sector.

"There’s nothing stern in this and it’s hard to argue against currency strength when your terms of trade are set to hit an all-time high. Given the dollar’s spike, the market was obviously looking for something more."

Economists were left with the clear impression the hurdle for policy action — in either direction — remained high, Mr Bagrie said.

The Reserve Bank continued to see "numerous uncertainties" shaping the outlook and was hesitant to act — or even signal likely future action.

That was likely to be the case for some time yet, he said.

"Most importantly, we doubt the Reserve Bank will be ready to embrace a tightening mindset until there are clearer signs domestic inflation is broadening beyond just housing."

The ANZ was remaining with its view the OCR was likely to move up in the middle of next year, which was still a long way off, Mr Bagrie said.

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