Rents might have dropped about as far as they are going to go, one economist says, as new data shows a mixed picture in August.

Realestate.co.nz data shows the national average asking rent on its site hit $637 last August, up 1.5% on a year earlier.

But within that, there was significant variation. Marlborough was up 8.2% to $553, Canterbury was up 5.7% to $622, Otago was up 5.6% to $653 and Waikato was up 4.1% to $587, a record for the area.

But rents fell in the West Coast, down 6.5%, Gisborne, down 5.2%, Southland, down 4.8%, Manawatū/Whanganui, down 4.5% and Wairarapa, down 3.3%.

Chief executive Sarah Wood said it was a reminder there was no single rental market.

"A renter in Marlborough or Canterbury is experiencing a very different market from someone on the West Coast or in Southland. Population movement, employment, local economies, and of course supply, can all influence demand, and those factors don't move uniformly across New Zealand."

Wellington recorded above-average growth, rising 3.6% to $621 per week but Auckland was comparatively steady. Its average weekly rent increased just 0.8% year-on-year, from approximately $684 to $689.

"When our largest rental market moves less than 1% in a year, it naturally has a stabilising influence on the national average," Wood said.

Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said asking rents could move around more than the rent that tenants were paying.

"But I think probably asking rents are a pretty good indicator of actual rents, probably a better indicator for actual rents than asking sales prices are for actual prices."

He said there was regional variation more generally.

"If you look at house prices you've got Southland and Canterbury going up, you've got Auckland and Wellington going down, so it's not unusual to have regional variability.

"With house prices we're definitely seeing support from the provincial economy, farmers doing well, that's putting a bit of cash into provincial economies so I'm not surprised to see rents going up in markets like Canterbury and Otago."

He said there was a sense that rents had probably bottomed out.

"We've seen rents fall for 12 or 18 months and if you look at Stats New Zealand measures, if you look at the MBIE bonds system, they'll lag behind these asking rent figures a bit, this is probably a really early indicator but we've been seeing probably for two months now, maybe three months, hints of a floor for rents."

He said affordability had improved for both rent and house prices.

"We're not saying renting is easy or anything and rents are still quite high but when you look at them relative to income, there has been a big adjustment."

He said immigration picking up would also provide support for rents.

"I don't think it necessarily gives way to a big boom in rents but at least there are hints in other data series that we might be approaching the floor and I think we're probably seeing that coming through in these realestate.co.nz numbers as well."

The number of properties for rent at the end of August was 8379, just under 1% more than the 8303 available in August 2025.