Civil Defence and other agencies are preparing for the arrival of a strong El Niño and the impacts it could bring to Canterbury.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern where trade winds weaken and ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal.

Earth Sciences New Zealand expects the current 2026/27 El Niño to intensify into one of the strongest on record, influencing New Zealand's weather from September into 2027.

Ashburton District Council group manager of compliance and development Ian Hyde said past El Niño events showed Canterbury experienced stronger and more frequent winds, reduced rainfall, and an increased risk of drought and wildfires.

“El Niño is not a weather forecast. It increases the likelihood of certain conditions but does not guarantee specific weather events will happen,” he said.

“Staying informed and preparing early is the best way to reduce potential impacts on households, businesses and communities.”

For Canterbury, El Niño is expected to bring more variable roller-coaster temperatures, including periods of above-average heat and occasional cold snaps.

Fire and Emergency New Zealand expects elevated fire danger across many eastern areas when dry conditions develop, increasing the risk of fires spreading rapidly during strong winds or multiple incidents occurring at the same time.

“About 98 per cent of wildfires in New Zealand are started by people, so we all need to take extra precautions over the coming months,” Hyde said.

“That means checking fire restrictions before lighting fires and avoiding activities that could create sparks when the fire risk is high.”

Canterbury has experienced drought during previous El Niño events. Reduced rainfall and stronger winds can dry soils faster and place pressure on farming operations and water supplies.

“The Ministry for Primary Industries has advice available for farmers, and it’s important to have plans in place for stock, feed and water,” Hyde said.

“We also encourage urban residents to use water responsibly during hot periods to help ensure supply keeps up with demand.”

Health New Zealand says unusually warm weather can affect anyone, but older people, babies, young children and those with existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illness.

He encouraged people to check on family, friends and neighbours, especially older residents.

“Many people cope well with hot weather, but those who are more vulnerable may struggle.”

More information about El Niño and links to resources are available at ashburtondc.govt.nz/elnino