Dunedin district plan variation aimed at cutting housing deficit

Photo: ODT files
A long-term Dunedin housing shortage of more than 3000 homes is forecast to be slashed to a shortfall of 100 under likely changes to the district plan.

The shortage is revealed in an assessment into housing capacity being tabled in today’s meeting of the Dunedin City Council’s planning and environment committee.

Under the present second generation district plan (2GP), Dunedin is expected to have a deficit of 480 houses by 2023, 2160 houses by 2030, and 3040 houses by 2050.

The council initiated variation 2 to the 2GP in 2019 to increase housing capacity in Dunedin in the short to medium term.

There are 16 greenfield areas proposed for residential rezoning and 15 other residential areas to be rezoned to allow higher density development under variation 2.

These changes are projected to change the short and medium term housing deficits to surpluses of 180 houses by 2023 and 460 houses by 2030.

There would still be a deficit in the longest term predictions, but it would be of only 100 houses instead of 3040.


”Dunedin is expected to have a deficit of 480 houses by 2023, 2160 houses by 2030, and 3040 houses by 2050.”
I get different numbers for 2030, 2040 & 2050.
Obviously I’m not aligning with the correct stars or maybe it’s Jupiters effect I’m not compensating enough for. I just don’t know.
Please advise.

How the heck can the council know with any accuracy how many people will live in Dunedin? The council has trouble with many facts and details. Why would they be accurate with this?
There are so many variables and unknowns in the future: Another (worse) pandemic? Earthquake? Industry leaving Dunedin?
Actually, the world's population is almost about to start DECLINING, especially in "developed" countries, including in NZ. WHO states this, and I'm pretty sure their scientists and advisors have more expertise than the DCC's! In fact we can already see it with our aging population taking up larger proportions of the total population. Communal living could actually be "the fashionable thing" in ten or twenty years, rather than demand for these obscene 900m2 concrete homes for families of two on precious horticultural and natural land. That land being smothered: We can never get it back to create nature belts for animals and birds and humans; temperature modifying and climate-saving green spaces; or food production. Gone under inefficient "dream homes" that are usually ugly concrete compromises.

The Lancet and fertility/population researchers tell us: The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies. Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including China, Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations approximately halve within 80 years.
University of Washington's Chair of Health Metrics Science Professor Murray says "Most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline ... People laugh it off; they can't imagine it could be true, they think women will just decide to have more kids. If you can't [find a solution] then eventually the species disappears, but that's a few centuries away."

Taieri elite soils sacrificed to "lifestyle" blocks like Hyacinth Buckett's sister's with a McMansion and room for a pony.
Shame on past councils and immoderate influence exerted by one man, landowner, developer and well involved with local politics.



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