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The threat of Russia invading Ukraine overshadows the other two dominant global issues of 2022, Professor Robert Patman says.
Picking what he believes will be most pressing foreign affairs concerns in the coming year, the international relations specialist told Global Insight Russia's military build-up on the Ukraine border is "a very dangerous situation".
Asked whether war was likely, Prof Patman said, "Authoritarian leaders often resort to foreign militancy when things are not going well at home. We can't rule out that possibility".
Climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic were the other two biggest issues.
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Prof Patman says an ambitious plan to reduce global vaccine inequality needs to replace the current "piecemeal" response, if the world is to reduce the threat of more deadly coronavirus variants emerging.
While there were some cautious but encouraging steps taken at November's Cop26 climate change summit, Prof Patman says it will be crucial that we see concrete steps taken this year to limit global warming to an average of 1.5degC.