Government moves to "contain" swine flu by checking incoming travellers and preventing them from "shedding" the virus in New Zealand is the best chance to hold a pandemic at bay, says a senior virologist.
"We can prevent the opportunity for this new virus to mix with the normal seasonal virus," National Influenza Centre head Sue Huang said today.
The likely outcome of such mixing was unknown but any reassortment of the virus could potentially create a form with greater virulence.
It would be foolish to let the virus spread, because that would give it more opportunity to mutate, she said. The world was faced with a novel influenza A virus which had spread to humans with little or no immunity to it, and experts are waiting to see the extent to which the virus turns out to be a killer.
"What we are doing now is the right strategy -- to contain it from the very beginning," Dr Huang said at the centre's Upper Hutt laboratories.
"The Government is doing a really great job: They are managing to contain all the cases linked to travel -- we haven't detected any community-sustained transmission.
"If we can separate the patients and do not let the opportunity occur where a person has two (influenza A) viruses, one swine flu and one seasonal flu ... we may be able to prevent the worst nightmare," she said.
Dr Huang said it was difficult to predict how the virus would evolve -- this was why it was so important to have good surveillance and to track the behaviour of the virus.
"At the moment the signs are quite encouraging," she said. But people should not lose sight of the 1918 catastrophe, where a H1N1 pandemic had a relatively benign first wave, then killed 50 million people in second and third waves of infection.
Health Minister Tony Ryall, who met centre staff today, said the Government was "holding the line" on containment.
"New Zealand's major strategy is for containment, and also support for mitigation," he said.
"We have to be cautious and concerned, but not alarmed. Cases in America have been generally much the same as seasonal influenza.
"New Zealand has responded very quickly ... we're dealing with the issues that we have, and a huge effort is going in from many of the best people in the health service".
Mr Ryall said the visit was his first to the laboratories, and it was a good opportunity to thank people who had been working very long hours: "They're doing a great job getting us confirmations and information."
Deputy Director of Public Health Fran McGrath said this afternoon there were five confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1), 14 probable cases and 84 suspected cases. There were 358 people in isolation or quarantine.
Those held in quarantine include people picked up in screening at Auckland Airport on Tuesday.
These included six passengers from flight QF26 from Los Angeles, and their 16 close contacts, a group of nine people who arrived on Flight NZ7 from San Francisco, and a group of 11 people who arrived on Flight NZ5 from Los Angeles.
"So far we've been successful in stopping the virus spreading in the community," said Dr McGrath.
"I recognise that it's a major disruption for people who have just arrived in New Zealand from an affected country to start their holiday and end up with an extended stay in Auckland, not able to leave the premises."
