New exhaust emissions standards, the falling dollar and competition from overseas buyers will mean fewer used cars are imported next year.
And New Zealand consumers will pay more as a result.
Independent Motor Vehicle Dealers Association (IMVDA) chief executive David Vinsen said association research compiled last month showed 85,000 vehicles were expected to be imported this year, down from about 135,000 in 2007.
Association projections indicated used imports could drop to 55,000 in 2009.
Although lower exchange rates for the New Zealand dollar made it more expensive to buy used vehicles in Japan, dealers had imported fewer cars since the Government introduced stringent exhaust emission regulations in January, Mr Vinsen said.
Businesses would find it more difficult to replace older small diesel vehicles and a reduced selection could raise the average price of an "entry level" imported family car from about $8000 to $13,000, he said.
"There's the combination of a slower market and the falling dollar . . . but the exhaust emissions legislation is starting to bite and having the exact opposite effect of what the Government intended. Car prices are governed by imports which hold the price down, so there will be increases across the board."
Fewer imports would adversely affect companies reliant on motor vehicle sales, such as vehicle inspectors, car preparation and compliance companies and transport and shipping firms, he said.
"Importing vehicles refreshes and rejuvenates the vehicle fleet. But the [emissions] restrictions mean the fleet will get older, less fuel efficient, and less safe, and will produce higher exhaust emissions."
Since January 3, 2008, new and used vehicles entering New Zealand had Japanese 1998 emission standards.
Only cars meeting 2002 Japanese standards will be imported from January 1 next year.
Announcing the changes last November, Associate Transport Minister Judith Tizard cited a 2007 Health and Air Pollution in New Zealand report showing 500 New Zealanders died prematurely as a result of vehicle emissions each year.
Carbase director Neil Videler, of Dunedin, said New Zealand buyers faced increasingly strong competition from Russia, Asia and the Middle East in the Japanese used vehicle market.
In recent years, New Zealand dealers typically bought about 10,000 cars a month in Japan.
This could peak at 14,000 cars a month, but had recently dropped to between 7000 and 8000 cars. Russian dealers were now buying up to 50,000 cars monthly.
New Zealand once took almost 50% of all Japanese vehicle exports; it now takes about 10%.
"I can understand why the public would be cynical about dealers saying prices are going to increase. At Carbase, we are not about to say cars are about to go up in price. But in six months' time, there will be less selection for buyers and dealers will carry less stock."
Dealers anticipating January's changes would stop buying cars in Japan this month, he said.
Carbase sold about 60 cars a month, and about half were "fresh" imports from Japan.
"There will be attrition throughout the country for small and medium dealers who can't get the supply of cars to make businesses viable. Conservatively, I would say the volume through compliancing centres could be down by at least 50%."
A Car Haulaways spokesman said the Christchurch-based vehicle transport company had noticed recently a 35% to 50% decrease in the number of Japanese used imported vehicles carried from Lyttelton port to dealerships around the South Island.
Ministry of Transport environment and safety general manager David Crawford said the IMVDA's 2009 import estimate was not unreasonable, given the ministry's understanding of the state of the used vehicle sector.
However, Mr Crawford said several factors besides the emissions rule which had a bearing on import numbers.
Since 2004, the number of imports had been declining steadily.
There was a slight increase from late last year to early this year when dealers stockpiled cars in advance of the emission rule.
A "straight line" observations of trends from 2004 suggests about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles would be imported in 2009.
Anecdotal evidence showed New Zealand buyers cannot pay the same prices as dealers from other countries in the Japanese market, and sales of vehicles in New Zealand were down, as well.
The Motor Trade Association recently reported almost 10,000 more vehicles arrived in the six months to September than have been sold.
The ministry said air-quality benefits from the emissions rule would not be obvious for five to 10 years.
