[Missing Credit][object Object] No one, least of all the government which commissioned it, should have been surprised by the findings of the Ministerial Advisory Group on Aged Care report, released on Monday. New Zealand, in common with much of the world, has known for decades that a demographic trend nicknamed the ``grey tsunami’’ is looming. The post-war baby boom generation is now well in to its golden years, and the infant population surge which placed pressure on school capacity in the 1950s and 60s is now straining New Zealand’s aged care system to its limits. The numbers speak plainly. By the 2050s, a quarter of New Zealanders will be aged over 65. Thanks to better health care and lifestyle choices, the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to reach 750,000+, and the aged 85 will reach about 265,000 -- 4% of the population. The growth rate in that demographic is seven times faster than the New Zealand population as a whole. Many of those people will live into their 90s and beyond. Inevitably they will need a greater level of medical care, and many will likely need dementia care as well. And those numbers have spoken plainly for years. This is far from the first report the government has either commissioned or been the recipient of, which has pointed out these self-evident population trends and then set out their almost certain ramifications. Hopefully it will be the last report the government considers on the matter, because the time for immediate action has likely passed; future governments will be forced to play catch-up in a race we knew was coming but failed to adequately prepare for. The independent advisory group is blunt in its findings: ``current settings will not be able to meet future demand safely, equitably, or sustainably without major deliberate system change.’’ Doing nothing is not a choice, the report warns. There are already not enough aged care beds for current demand, nor the workforce to care for those people. Exacerbating that is a funding model which has not kept up with demand or supply; some private facilities have already closed because they are economically unsustainable, and the charitable sector does not have the wherewithal to pick up that slack — let alone cope with what is coming in the future. ``The only real question is whether we have the will to act on change now, while it’s still a choice, or wait until the harder choice is made by crisis,’’ the report said. Its 40 recommendations to develop an integrated aged care system included Health New Zealand adopting a nationally consistent system for contracting aged care services, streamlining the aged care assessment system, offering more support to enable people to stay in their homes for as long as possible before graduating to more intensive care and offering carers greater support and training. Importantly, the report calls for an immediate 6% increase in funding for in-home care, to be followed by further increases in the years ahead. For those already receiving higher care, it suggests an average 7% rise in government per bed subsidies, as well as boosting funding rates for future residential care beds. This will be expensive, it would be naive to think otherwise, but if New Zealand is to be a truly caring society it cannot turn its back on the needs of the people who built that society when they need its help. Suggestions in a report are all very well, but finding a government prepared to act on them, and to pay for them, is quite another. Seniors Minister Casey Costello said that the government would consider the report’s recommendations carefully before making any policy and funding decisions. There is no reason not to take her at her word: her party has long championed the rights of seniors, but the timing of the release of the report is unfortunate. The next general election is weeks away, with government formation and the implementation of campaign pledges to come. Unless there is a concerted effort, across the political spectrum, to implement what it has recommended a real risk exists that short-term thinking will once more trump what is, incorrectly, perceived to be a longer-term issue. The advisory group has been quite clear that this is an issue for today, not for tomorrow. Whomsoever occupies the government benches after November 7 needs to address the aged care crisis with the urgency it deserves. Today’s seniors, and those soon to enter those ranks, deserve nothing less.
