National will have breathed a sigh of relief on Saturday after its party list ranking announcement was made with little incident. Readers will recall that the list announcement prior to the 2020 election was a controversial one. Its then Dunedin list MP Michael Woodhouse was unceremoniously dropped to what he perceived as an unelectable position in the party ranks in a shabby manner which showed little regard for a loyal party member and — until then — senior member of caucus. Mr Woodhouse angrily refused his ranking and ended his political career, something which National may later have had cause to regret: even if ministerial rank was not feasible he would have been an excellent presiding officer. There was no such dudgeon from within National’s ranks in 2026, although the rankings may, again, end up being the catalyst for the end of some political careers. For most, but not all, of the party’s senior MPs, they have the security of an election seat to fall back on. Of those who are list only, deputy leader Nicola Willis is obliged to be at two by the party’s own rules. Senior MPs Chris Bishop and Simeon Brown were always going to dispute third and fourth; Mr Brown has an 18,000+ majority in Pakuranga so it costs him nothing to defer to Mr Bishop, whose 1332 majority in Hutt South looks more precarious. On current polling, the list provides some cover to allow the pugnacious Mr Bishop, one of his party’s better platform speakers, to take to the road and work the hustings. But the list has its perils for National MPs reliant on it. Because National won so many electorate seats in 2023, and is likely to hold many of them, that could well affect how many list seats it is entitled to, given the proportionality of seat allocation in Parliament is determined by the party vote. MPs such as Paul Goldsmith (ranked 6), Gerry Brownlee (9) and Nancy Lu (16) will have an awkward election night, wanting their colleagues to do well in their electorates but not so well as to jeopardise their own chances of returning via the list. Even 11th ranked MP Tama Potaka could have a nervous night should his Hamilton West seat revert to its historical role as a bellwether seat and signal a major shift to the left. Current polling is so variable that neither the left nor right could lay claim to the momentum of the early days of the campaign, but Mr Luxon’s presentation on Saturday — at the end of a messy week by him in terms of personal performance — was bouyed by a new poll showing an upswing for National and a downswing for Labour. Those moves were likely within the margin of error so it is likely that too much should not be read into them, but at that moment in time it at least allowed Mr Luxon to say with some genuine conviction that his party would elect some of the MPs whose names he had just read out, via the list. As with all list ranking exercises, the party had tried hard to tick the diversity and equality of opportunity boxes, as well as offer geographic representation. The party will almost certainly retain a southern presence in its caucus thanks to its solid majorities in Southand and Waitaki, and it will also be expecting that the South’s sole National Cabinet Minister, Penny Simmonds (15) retains her Invercargill seat. However, its candidates in Dunedin and Taieri, Kristine Asuncion (42) and Matthew French (54) respectively, have an uphill battle ahead. They have an important but unenviable job ahead: in what is expected to be a close election every party vote they secure for National will be important, but they and their fellow local Nats will know that it will not provide Dunedin with a blue rosette-wearing MP. Neither Dunedin seat is likely to elect a National candidate, but the party has won the party vote in each of them before. There is a party base there that National can energise, should it chose to devote some time and effort to it. In 2023, Mr French tried hard but was hamstrung by the list controversy. He and Ms Asuncion have a clearer path this time and a chance to prove themselves, provided that their party backs them.
