Poll shows Nats at highest level since 2017

National leader Simon Bridges.
National leader Simon Bridges.
The National Party has climbed to 47 percent in the latest 1News-Colmar Brunton poll, up 2 percentage points to its highest level of support since coming into Opposition in 2017.

National is now seven percentage points above Labour, who are polling at 40 percent – down 3 percentage points on the previous 1News-Colmar Brunton poll taken in late July.

The numbers show that National, along with Act, could form a Government.

When it comes to seats in Parliament, National alone would have 60 seats; 61 with ACT – enough to form a Government.

Labour would have 51 seats; combine with the Greens' eight the two parties would have 59.

The Greens are at 7 percent and New Zealand First remains below the 5 percent threshold to 4 percent – both parties were up 1 percentage point compared to the last poll.

When it comes to the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is at 38 percent, down 3 points.

The support lost by Ardern was picked up by National Leader Simon Bridges, who jumped 3 percentage points to 9 percent.

He's clear of senior National MP Judith Collins, on 5 percent and Winston Peters, who is on 4 percent.

When it comes to the economy, the poll shows 41 percent of people have a pessimistic outlook compared to 34 percent of people who are optimistic.

The numbers will certainly be welcomed by Bridges.

In the 12 Colmar Brunton polls since the election, National has sat between 40 and 45 percent. It climbed to 46 percent in late November last year.

But tonight is the first time the party has cracked 47 percent since it was ousted from Government in 2017.

Labour has only reached above 47 percent twice since entering Government.

On election night, Labour received 36.9 percent of the total vote and National got 44.4 percent.

Bridges told 1News that the numbers show that Labour talked a big game but New Zealanders aren't seeing any results.

Ardern said there was a number of things the Government has plans to do over the next 12 months.

"I think we will only continue to boost New Zealanders' confidence."

Ardern said that as a Government, their numbers were still strong – "in fact, we're in a better position that when we were elected".

Asked about the preferred Prime Minister results, Bridges said he doesn't read too much into it.

When asked about potential coalition partners, aside from ACT, Bridges said "watch this space".

Ardern said Labour's two support partners, NZ First and the Greens, were "both performing solidly".

Tonight's poll comes just a day after a Newshub-Reid Research poll, which showed both Labour and the Prime Minister's popularity had fallen significantly.

Labour polled at 41.6 percent, falling 9.2 percentage points compared to the previous Reid Research poll.

Meanwhile, National was up 6.5 percent to 43.9.

Ardern had dropped 10.6 percentage points to 38.4 percent in the preferred Prime Minister ranking but was still well ahead of Bridges on ranking – he jumped 2.5 percentage points to 6.7 percent.

This is the fifth 1News-Colmar Brunton political poll of the year.


Bridges gloated about the result saying "Labour talked a big game" but when it came to the preferred PM result, suddenly he says he doesn't "read too much into it". Which way is it Soimun?
Then he says "NZers aren't seeing any results".
Dear Soimun, our debt has fallen, we have a huge surplus, Dunedin & Taranaki hospitals are being rebuilt, more ambulance funding, new rescue helicopters, nurses & teachers have had their first pay rise for a decade, police numbers are being brought back up after Nats scrapped them, a new cancer care regime that the Nats rejected a few years back, unemployment is down = all huge progress.

The poll is not significant, expected & normal for this part of the cycle. However watch the dirty campaigning from the Nats and their front man Mike Hosking. They are already sowing seeds of doubt & scaremongering. The reality is middle aged men do not like a young woman in charge.

They need a partner then we may get the oppressive far left out......new Zealand needs industry to progress /

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