What a difference a couple of years makes.
Just two years ago, that huge desiccated continent upwind of us was spitting out sparks and smoke and going through one of its worst bushfire seasons on record.
But today, the subtropical rains continue to thunder down along parts of Australia’s eastern seaboard, threatening yet more lives through major flooding and destroying livelihoods and communities.
As our climate continues to cry out in pain at what we are doing to the planet, it seems there is little middle ground left. It’s either very hot or very cold, very wet or very dry. The extremes, which used to be rare events, are becoming more the norm, and the quieter spells of weather between are becoming less dominant.
It would be great if all the things ailing us and the planet — a pandemic, wars, climate change, pollution, loss of biodiversity and so on — could be put on hold for a bit. That would allow us some breathing space, and provide us with the chance to think more clearly about what needs to be done and in what order.
Unfortunately, and obviously, that is not the case. We have to forge ahead as best we can, tackling all these major issues at once. Failure is not an option, as they say.
Looking at what is happening with the weather across the Tasman, across Aotearoa New Zealand and around the world, there can be no doubt now that humans are to blame for the burgeoning of the extremes. Anyone who tries to argue otherwise is on a hiding to nothing and is clearly at odds with the volumes of science and evidence which show what is happening.
While all eyes are on the intense rainstorms again hitting parts of eastern Australia, we have had our own severe weather to deal with.
New Zealand has just been through a La Nina summer, which traditionally brings more rain to the north and east of the country, and frequent subtropical airstreams. This time, however, the La Nina had a different flavour, which reflects how broader climate change is imposing itself on the circulation patterns that determine our weather.
Atmospheric rivers of moisture in the first half of February brought extreme rain and flooding to the top of the South Island, followed mid-month by former tropical cyclone Dovi, which caused all sorts of damage across the North Island and the upper South Island.
According to Niwa, nine places had their wettest February on record, including Westport, with almost five times its usual February rainfall. Even usually dry Christchurch had more than three times its average rainfall for the month.
The increasing warmth of New Zealand’s climate has, in the past decade, been exacerbated by marine heatwaves. These occur when the sea-surface temperatures around the country remain in the warmest 10% of historical observations for at least five consecutive days.
The Deep South Challenge says New Zealand currently has about 40 marine heatwave days annually, but that could increase to between 80 and 170 days each year, depending on the best- or worst-case scenario. The damage to marine life and coastal ecosystems scarcely bears thinking about.
Just last week, more grim news landed in the form of a bleak new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on risks to society, health, agriculture and wildlife from climate change.
If ever a shot-in-the-arm was needed to add urgency to the urgent, this report provides it, warning of further impacts even if emissions are cut rapidly.
The report also says climate-related risks are even more severe than previous IPCC assessments, and are expected to occur sooner than previously thought. It recommends action in the next decade to ensure more successful adaptation.
Yes, there are many other things to think about right now. But we cannot afford to take our eyes off the climate emergency for even a minute.
