Internal ructions, external ramifications

What are we to make of the unedifying sight of Te Pāti Māori disemboweling itself in public?

Long-standing fragilities between factions in the party were hurriedly pasted together last week when the leadership announced a "reset" and fresh focus on policy development and engagement as it looked forward to the next election.

It did so immediately after what should have been a moment of triumph, the swearing in of its newest MP, Oriini Kaipara, the victor in the recent Tāmaki Makaurau by-election.,

However, that moment was tarnished by her speech running grossly over time and incurring the wrath of Speaker Gerry Brownlee, who suspended the House.

On Monday night the uneasy peace was shattered when Te Pāti Māori members were emailed an astonishing array of documents which claimed all sorts of alleged misdeeds concerning former party whip Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and separately her son Eru Kapa-Kingi.

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi was recently demoted in mysterious and still unclear circumstances; Eru Kapa-Kingi is a former vice president of Te Pāti Māori and a current spokesman for Toitū Te Tiriti — a pro Treaty of Waitangi rights organisation which was once closely aligned to the parliamentary party.

Not any more, as the Kapa-Kingis have vehemently defended themselves thus far and show no sign of backing down. Nor, for that matter, does the leadership of Te Pāti Māori.

Ms Kaipara must be wondering what on earth she has walked in to.

No doubt also shaking their heads in disbelief will be those who voted for at Te Pāti Māori at the last election. Returning six MPs and all but sweeping the Māori seats, TPM had a mandate to be a robust voice for Māori interests.

That, until now, they have by and large been, despite the determined efforts of the governing parties to belittle the party. 

However, what credibility it had is now splintered by the ongoing parochial fight, disunity which will make pulling together a coherent campaign in 2026 all the more difficult.

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Photo: file
This has ramifications far beyond the corridors of Te Pāti Māori.

Most current political polls have the margin between the centre-left parties and the centre-right sitting in the too-close-to-call zone. That would mean for Labour and the Greens to have any hope of dislodging the present coalition it would need either the active or implicit support of Te Pāti Māori.

Given TPM’s firm belief in Māori self-determination, it seems highly unlikely that it would be content to merely offer a left-wing government confidence and supply. \

It would want a voice in Cabinet, and given the current bedlam it would be difficult to persuade uncommitted voters that Te Pāti Māori could be a part of a stable and constructive government.

The left like to call the current government the "coalition of chaos". It may indeed be a house of sticks, but it looks like a house of bricks compared to what the left can construct from the straw it is surrounded with as things lie.

National, Act New Zealand and New Zealand First have already done a lot of huffing and puffing about the likely stability of any future government with Te Pāti Māori involved, but that House is being well and truly blown in without any help from the coalition.

This makes the unenviable position of Labour leader Chris Hipkins all the more difficult: does he unleash the party’s might to try and win the TPM-held Māori seats, at the risk of embarrassing failure — as just happened when Labour as soundly beaten in Tāmaki Makaurau? 

Or does he attempt to overturn the multi-thousand majorities enjoyed by the National backbenchers elected in 2023, and then trust that he can stitch together a deal with whatever remains of Te Pati Māori?

Crucially, can Mr Hipkins edge Labour ahead in the all important party vote race, to a point where it looks like it can reassure middle New Zealand voters that it can rise above the tumult in Te Pati Māori, leaving its internal chaos a moot point?

It is a cliche in politics that it is never not an election year; that holds especially true right now. 

Two years ago this week was election day. Approximately 11 months out from the polling booths being dusted off, battle lines are being well and truly drawn.