More jam tomorrow

New Zealand's economic growth cycle appears set to be extended for a further three years, possibly more.

Low interest rates, economic growth encouraged through record high migration and increased government spending on things like roads have all contributed to the ongoing growth projections seen this week.

The Crown accounts, released through the Pre-Election Fiscal Update this week, mirrored Budget 2017 with rising surpluses, a neutral cash position and a declining debt position.

Projected economic growth was slightly lower than it was in May, but with a similar spirit.

The Crown has an operating balance excluding gains and losses (obegal) - the preferred measure by MPs for the Government's accounts - of $3.7 billion forecast for the 2017 financial year which ended in June. That is well up on the $1.6 billion forecast in Budget 2017.

Next year, the surplus is forecast to be $2.9 billion, the same as the Budget, before falling to $3.5billion compared with $4.1billion, and $5.7 billion from $6.1 billion in 2020.

The Government has already committed to a large infrastructure spend, meaning residual cash remains broadly in balance until the 2019-20 year.

Finance Minister Steven Joyce, who as campaign manager for National is seeking to win a fourth term on the Treasury benches, played down the forecasts as being softer growth and warning of limited room for any additional spending beyond what is already proposed in the forecasts until the 2020 year when there is expected to be a $1.7billion cash surplus.

However, the country is in the comfortable position of seeing debt paid down and the accounts being in the black after facing a ``decade of deficits'' when Labour left office in 2008.

The criticism the Government faced this week involved hoarding surpluses when there remained so many homeless people in New Zealand and poverty seemed to be a major issue in parts of the country.

Those criticisms are valid up to a point, but New Zealand has to stop borrowing so much money from overseas just in case another global financial crisis comes along. New Zealand has fortunately escaped the worst of the global downturn. Europe, Japan, parts of Asia and Australia have not been so lucky.

Labour has backed off some of its tax plans following the release of the Crown accounts, seemingly because of a public backlash to increased taxes and the room its finance spokesman Grant Robertson and leader Jacinda Ardern see in the surpluses and their ability to campaign on what money will become available.

Economists applaud the financial state of New Zealand, noting there is room to cut taxes and/or increase spending. Heading into the election, the Government's books look very healthy. Focus will now turn to the last four weeks of the campaign.

There will be a temptation for announcing massive spend-ups by political parties desperate to see their percentage of the vote increase. National and Labour will be the prime spenders, but New Zealand First - likely to be the kingmaker for either party after September 23 - needs to be watching carefully.

John Maynard Keynes did foresee more emphasis in the economy on current gratification - jam today, instead of always jam tomorrow - more personal debt rather than increased savings.

Election campaigns are focused on the perhaps jam tomorrow. National is promising a families package part two in 2020, if circumstances allow. It is difficult to get a reading on exactly what Labour is promising in the future, although its immediate spending plans are clear as more affordable housing is a priority.

Whether voters can bring themselves to believe good times will remain is a moot point. Every administration will promise something tomorrow, if we vote for them today.

There is without question money to spend, but paying down debt - like anyone with personal debt - must remain a priority. New Zealanders are poor savers and borrowing offshore is essential for any government. Keeping that debt to a minimum is something all prudent Kiwis should consider.

 

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