For some the prospect is tempting, for others it will be terrifying, but it is quite possible that New Zealand First could have two, or more, MPs in the South after the November 7 election.
NZ First has yet to release its party list rankings but it would be a considerable surprise if the party’s Taieri candidate and a Minister outside Cabinet, Mark Patterson, was not ranked in its upper echelons.
Likely to join him somewhere in the top 10, if not higher, is the party’s freshly-announced Waitaki candidate, Michael Laws.
The Otago Regional councillor, broadcaster and one-time NZ First MP and strategist will not be returning to the national political fray without some assurance of a lofty list placement, and given his high profile Mr Laws may well be worth a percentage point or two to NZ First’s share of the party vote on November 7.
It says much for NZ First’s performance in government, and for its broader political strategy, that questions about how it will fare in the looming election are not concerned with whether or not it will crest the 5% MMP threshold but by how much.
Many predicted the coalition it signed with National and Act New Zealand after being re-elected in 2023 would collapse before the ink even dried.
However, naysayers forgot that Mr Peters has served full terms in government before and he is poised to do so again.
Despite his at times combative rhetoric about his governing partners he is not about to destroy a government in which he has ticked off a large percentage of the bottom lines in his coalition agreement.
In fact, the longer this government has survived the better NZ First’s polling has been.
It is on track for 10%, or more, in November on current polling and it could well be more — whether your view of Mr Peters is positive or negative, few would dispute that he is a masterful campaigner.
This is no doubt where Mr Laws comes in.
In his political track record in general, and in his work in the media particularly, he is a strong voice in NZ First’s self-declared ‘‘war on woke’’; his occasionally inflammatory rhetoric will no doubt keep the party in the headlines even if his leader or the equally as flamboyant Shane Jones are having a quiet day.
If fact, if NZ First wishes to project a strong and stable image of its leaders, having Laws in full flight energising its base might be a productive strategy.
For all NZ First’s efforts in the South — Mr Peters has long campaigned to keep the Tiwai Point smelter open and the revival of the Hillside workshops in South Dunedin has been another pet project — it has never before been rewarded with a flood of party votes.
With due respect to the efforts of Mr Patterson and former southern NZ First MP Ria Bond, Mr Laws will elevate the party’s profile in the region like never before.
Add in the former regional Federated Farmers president Jason Herrick, the NZ First candidate in Southland, and a still to be announced but reputedly high-profile Invercargill candidate, and the party is clearly putting its shoulder to the wheel in Otago and Southland.
Just like every election every party vote will count for NZ First’s ambitions, which are loftier than ever before.
It has several other high-profile new recruits, such as former Otago and All Blacks captain Taine Randall, one-time Labour Cabinet minister Stuart Nash and former Buller mayor Jamie Cleine it wants to elect, and a caucus of eight who, presumably, all hope to keep their jobs.
That will require a performance similar to NZ First’s best election result ever, the 13.35% of party votes it received in 1996.
Momentum is the most valuable thing in politics and at the moment it is all heading in NZ First’s direction.
It is difficult to envisage it not, once again, playing a pivotal role in the next Parliament.
