There seems to be a mismatch between what the United Nations describes as a genocidal situation in Gaza and New Zealand’s tentative announcement in the General Assembly in New York on Saturday that it will not yet join other 157 states in recognising a Palestinian state.
Since the escalation of conflict between the Netanyahu government and Palestinians following a Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, in which 1200 Israelis were killed, more that 65,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza after the IDF retaliated with a relentless military onslaught on this densely populated area.
Nearly 70% of the Palestinian deaths in Gaza have been women or children with little or no connection to Hamas.
At the same time, the Netanyahu government has placed tight restrictions on the distribution of food aid in Gaza where at least 80% of all buildings have been destroyed and 90% of the Palestinian inhabitants displaced.
Famine conditions have now taken hold across Gaza. The UN has said more than half a million people are currently starving and that 390 have already died from a lack of food, including 140 children.
Meanwhile, during the past two years, more than 1000 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank as Israel accelerates its programme of illegal settlements there.
Over the same period, New Zealand’s National-led coalition government has in principle emphasised its support for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza; reiterated its support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the occupied territories of East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank; and repeatedly said that New Zealand’s recognition of a Palestinian state is a question of "when, not if".
However, in practice, the stance of the government has been more ambiguous than its declaratory position suggests.
In January 2024, the government agreed to a small NZDF deployment as part of a US-led coalition effort to uphold maritime security in the Red Sea despite the fact that the US used its veto to prevent a ceasefire in Gaza.
Equally striking was the government’s relative silence on President Trump’s proposal in February this year to extinguish the prospect of a two-state solution by taking ownership of Gaza and effectively evicting 2million Palestinian residents from the territory.
It also had little to say about the US-Israeli venture to start the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) in late May in a controversial move which sidelined the UN in aid distribution and has led to the killing of more than 1000 Palestinians while seeking food.
Then, in a new twist, the National-led coalition government, along with the UK, Australia, Canada and Norway, imposed sanctions on two far-right Israeli government ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar ben Gvir, in June this year for "inciting extremist violence" against Palestinians — a move that was strongly criticised by the Trump administration.
The New Zealand position, and that of close allies like Australia and Canada, seemed to be hardening. In August, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon declared Israel’s military assault on Gaza City was "utterly unacceptable" and said Netanyahu had "lost the plot".
Nevertheless, New Zealand announced at the weekend that it would not follow other liberal democracies such as Australia, Canada, UK, France and Portugal in recognising Palestinian statehood.
In his address to the UN General Assembly, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said Hamas remains in place as the de facto government of Gaza and "with a war raging" it is not the right time to extend recognition when there is no viable Palestinian state in place.
Such a stance was depicted by the prime minister and foreign minister as "balanced" and consistent with an independent foreign policy.
However, it could be argued, the New Zealand government’s approach rests on some shaky assumptions. While the Netanyahu government has not been able to destroy Hamas, this terrorist organisation could not stop Gaza being reduced to piles of rubble.
According to the Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich, such destruction "has no precedent and the world is not stopping us".
By presenting Hamas as an obstacle to the recognition process, the government also seems to be overlooking the governance role the internationally recognised Palestinian Authority in the West Bank could play in Gaza in a future Palestinian state
If the situation in Gaza in the words of Mr Peters is "simply intolerable" and all this has been allowed to happen without New Zealand’s recognition of a Palestinian state, what is the basis for delaying this recognition?
After all, Mr Netanyahu has opposed the concept of a two-state solution to the conflict with the Palestinians since the mid-1990s and his far-right coalition government has pledged to take full control of Gaza and annex the West Bank in 2025.
Indeed, it is the belated realisation by a number of liberal democracies that Netanyahu will never accept a Palestinian state which has prompted a flurry of recognitions before Israel’s attempt to absorb the occupied territories is completed.
By declining to take the symbolic step of recognising a Palestinian state, the New Zealand government has demonstrated it is not yet prepared to join the growing number of states that maintain a clear moral and legal stand on the question of the Palestinian right of political self-determination.
Moreover, judging by Israel’s almost immediate praise for the coalition government’s current stance, there is a very real risk New Zealand will be seen as aligning with those states — Israel and the US — that bear significant responsibility for prolonging the catastrophic conflict in Gaza.
If this perception is widely shared, New Zealand’s hard-won reputation as a state that firmly upholds an international rules-based order could be dealt a major blow.
• Robert G. Patman is an inaugural Sesquicentennial Distinguished Chair and a specialist in international relations at the University of Otago.
