Imagine this: peak tourist season, more than 100,000 people in Queenstown and then the ground starts to shake. Paul Taylor reports on Project AF8 and the ramifications of a big earthquake in the resort.
''I went back to my hotel room and I couldn't believe how much coverage there was,'' she told a Catalyst Trust audience at Queenstown's Memorial Centre last month.
''Three solid days, wall-to-wall, on three different channels.
''So much quake imagery was going out and I suspect that had a big impact on Australians' motivations to come to Christchurch.''
Seven years later, the city still has not recovered to pre-quake tourism levels, never mind experience the same boom Queenstown has.
''Tourism recovery is very slow and it can be affected by a lot of different factors - perceptions of safety, fear and anxiety about earthquakes.''
Dr Orchiston, of the University of Otago, is the science lead for Project AF8 - a government-funded multi-agency initiative which aimed at improving the South Island's capability to deal with a huge Alpine Fault quake.
The fault line itself - where the Ring-of-Fire Pacific plate and the Australian plate meet - runs along the western flank of the Southern Alps from Milford Sound up to Picton.
In the past 8000 years, it has produced magnitude-8 or greater earthquakes 27 times.
That is, on average, every 300 years.
The last one was in 1717.
The Project AF8 team has a number of scenarios for an earthquake.
Unexpectedly, one originating in the north and moving south would be the most damaging for Queenstown, as it sends something like a building shockwave ahead of it.
But the team works from a scenario of a magnitude-8 rupture spanning 400km, starting in south Westland and running north.
Dr Orchiston said there was now enough energy stored to trigger a magnitude-8 (AF8), which would be devastating on the West Coast.
It would be 700 times stronger than Christchurch's February 2011 earthquake.
''We believe [the ground] will move horizontally eight to 10 metres, with a vertical movement of between two and three.''
In the immediate vicinity, the sound would be deafening, buildings, trees and powerlines will fall, glass will shatter, thousands of lanslips would be triggered, everything would move.
Hundreds would die and thousands would be injured.
The ground would shake for three to four minutes across the whole of the South Island.
But the prognosis for Queenstown, about 85km from the Alpine Fault, was better, at least in the short term.
''In this scenario, you're likely to be exposed to intensities of five to six shaking.''
Five is moderate - unstable objects will overturn, some dishes and windows will break.
Six is strong, causing slight damage to buildings and moving heavy objects.
''It's a significant experience but not devastating shaking that's going to collapse buildings - in this scenario.
''I need to keep saying that ... there are other potential scenarios which could be worse for Queenstown.''
Those included an AF8 triggering other active fault lines, such as the Moonlight Fault or Dunstan.
The major risk for Queenstown was isolation and the secondary hazards, particularly lanslips. There was likely to be widespread disruption to critical infrastructure in the South Island; damage to hydro dams, telecommunications and road passes.
That would cause issues in Queenstown - including power disruption and food shortages.
''Many of your roads, the Devil's Staircase, Nevis Bluff, the Crown Range, are all quite exposed to landslides.
''So if you become isolated by roads, you have a captive population of tourists and locals you'll have to deal with of course.
''It could be tens of thousands of tourists.''
The 2016 Kaikoura quake left about 1200 tourists stranded, she said.
''It was quite a considerable burden for the resident population.''
The good news was recent upgrades to Queenstown Airport meant it could still be operational after an AF8 earthquake, as long as local active faults did not rupture in the same event.
However, Project AF8 emergency management consultant Jon Mitchell said detailed planning to manage all air resources, particularly helicopters, is ongoing, but the issue would likely be around telecommunications.
''So, the type of aircraft that can come and go in the few weeks after an earthquake will be different.''
There were also plans to evacuate by lake.
There was also the potential for flooding in the CBD, with lanslips into Lake Wakatipu causing localised tsunamis, and damage to water pipes.
Aftershocks up to magnitude-7 could happen.
While the conventional wisdom was to prepare for three days, the latest push in the United States was to be two-weeks ready - enough food, water, medicine, heat and other supplies for a fortnight.
Critical to being prepared was having a plan with family, friends and colleagues, without being anxious about a potential earthquake.
''It's about creating resilience,'' Dr Orchiston said.
''Recovery.
''It's not something that happens overnight.
''It takes years.
''We've evidence of that.''
And for Queenstown, while locals and businesses such as hotels could make preparations to help people survive and live in relative comfort after a quake in this scenario, the prognosis long-term for a town reliant on tourism could be much more bleak.
Visit www.projectaf8.co.nz for information and advice.
