A joint Otago Regional Council-Queenstown Lakes District Council housing and business capacity assessment discussed at this week’s regional council meeting showed planned housing capacity would be sufficient in the short, medium and long term.
But there would be a shortfall of industrial, commercial and retail land — and the deficit would only get larger as time marched on.
The government’s National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) required the district and the regional councils to jointly prepare and make publicly available a housing and business capacity assessment (HBA) every three years and ensure there was sufficient housing development capacity in the short, medium and long term.
Queenstown Lakes was an area of high growth, the report said.
The district’s estimated resident population has increased by 140% in the past two decades, which was more than four and a-half times the national rate.
The associated rapid expansion and substantial changes to the urban environment have created challenges.
An HBA report for the district council, carried out by Market Economics in September, showed the district was generally well-positioned to meet projected housing and business land demand over the medium term, supported by planning and infrastructure initiatives.
In the short term, however, infrastructure constraints were limiting the district’s ability to respond effectively to demand.
In the medium term, the district was projected to face a net shortfall of 18ha of industrial land
In the long term, further shortfalls in available business land were anticipated, including 3ha each for retail and commercial uses and 36ha for industrial use.
The Queenstown Lakes demand projections report said the resident population was expected to reach about 97,700 in 30 years’ time, an 80% increase from 2025.
Housing numbers were projected to grow to nearly 50,000, resulting in a required increase of about 23,600 dwellings.
Visitor growth also played a major role, with the average daily population projected to reach about 150,000, and more than 220,000 people on peak days.
The assessment showed plan changes and policy changes would mean there was enough planned housing capacity for the region in the short, medium and long term.
This has been done by plan mechanisms such as zone changes at Ladies Mile, changes to the district plan such as urban intensification variations, the new southern corridor structure plan, and identifying future urban uses.
The report said in the short term there were sizable shortfalls across all business sectors, amounting to about 85,300sq m of floor space, or 12.4ha of land, primarily because of infrastructure constraints.
In the medium term, there was an expected shortfall of 72,000sq m of business floor space or 6.1ha.
The report said most shortfalls were concentrated in Wakatipu. Wānaka also showed industrial land constraints, though it retains a small surplus of retail land.
Cr Michael Laws asked if this report would have any impact on allowing fast-track proposals.
Council planning and transport general manager Anita Dawe said it was just a piece of data and other measures would impact fast-track proposals.
