Signs property market reviving

Median house prices in Otago have remained static in the past two years, but there are signs of life returning to the residential real estate market.

Since the buoyant housing bubble burst in 2007, annual sales regionally have plummeted by up to 40%.

But an analysis of Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (Reinz) statistics shows sales in Dunedin, Central Otago and Queenstown are on the upward trail again.

While confirmed sales figures for December will not be released until the middle of this month, indications are the number of sales last year will surpass 2010 totals, although they will still be far below the levels seen before 2007.

In Dunedin, 1830 houses were sold in the 11 months to the end of November last year, 124 less than the total for all of 2010.

REINZ southern area spokeswoman Liz Nidd last week said December "felt good" and she would expect December sales to reach 160-170. If that was achieved, total sales last year would be about 3% higher than 2010.

There were 2786 sales in Dunedin in 2007.

In Queenstown the pattern was similar, Reinz Queenstown Lakes area spokesman Kelvin Collins said last week.

He expected about 40 sales would be settled in December, giving a total for the year of about 461 - 25, or about 6%, more than was achieved last year.

However, while volumes would be "a little up", Mr Collins said they were still a long way below the mid-2000s when about 800 houses and up to 200 sections were being sold annually.

"When you look at a market of our size, some 10,000 properties, annual sales of houses and sections should be sitting at around 1000.

"Sales will go back to that level, but when, I don't know."

Steady population growth in Queenstown and surrounding areas should also be driving more sales, he said.

He estimated an additional 300 houses were required in the district annually to meet population growth demand.

Mrs Nidd said more confidence was appearing among Dunedin vendors. With sale prices still hovering about 10% below those attained during the boom times, vendors in the middle and higher price brackets had "sat" - not putting their homes on the market unless they had to, she said.

However, that trend had begun to change during the past three or four months, with more "really good" stock coming on the market.

There was a steady number of buyers, she said, including some people relocating from Christchurch.

Asked their predictions for next year, Mrs Nidd said she was "very much a glass half full kind of person" and was going into 2012 with optimism.

"Maybe there will still not be much change in median house prices, but I think we will see a rise in sales volumes."

Mr Collins said he expected the first six months of this year to be "steady as she goes", but was expecting more activity, higher sales volumes and better prices for vendors in the second half of the year, "provided the world [economy] behaves itself".

- allison.rudd@odt.co.nz

 

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