The national jockeys' premiership is as good as over, according to TAB bookmakers.
They plan to pay out bets on Chris Johnson to win the title today with still a month to go in the racing season.
Johnson has an 11-win lead over Aucklander Danielle Johnson - 105 to 94 - going into today's meeting at Te Rapa. Johnson will miss most of the remaining days as she is going overseas.
"We have been thinking about it for the last week and a-half,'' TAB bookmaker Stephen Hunt said.
An official announcement could come as early as 10am on Trackside television's The First Call programme, he said.
Danielle Johnson will leave after the Te Rapa meeting to ride in Sweden in the inaugural world championships for women jockeys and return on July 13.
After that she has a two-week holiday planned.
"I was going to go to Sweden regardless of where I was on the premiership. It's an opportunity that you just can't pass up,'' she said.
"Chris has kicked quite clear of me now. He's going to keep travelling and will be very hard to beat, she said.
Chris Johnson's next-nearest rival, Alysha Collett, is 16 wins behind him and though she will travel and give herself every chance to win the title, it was highly unlikely she would, Hunt said.
Johnson, known as The Magic Man, opened in betting for the premiership at a price of $51, reflecting his finishing place of 18th in the previous year's standings.
A handful of lucky punters backed him to win at those juicy odds, but most were gold coin-type bets that would not hurt the bookies' pockets too much, Hunt said.
It would be 10 months later, on the back of consistently good riding and continually shortening premiership odds that the real damage to the bookies pockets was done.
Johnson attracted a number wagers of $1000 and more at $2-$3 prices, but they were made to look like loose change when one punter plunged $18,000 on the Magic Man at $1.65, Hunt said.
While that sounds painful for the TAB, Chris Johnson taking the title does not spell financial ruin for it.
"The book is very balanced.
"Danielle was very well supported. The only time she hasn't been punted is in the last couple of weeks,'' Hunt said.
"There has been balance which means it isn't disastrous for us, but in terms of the last three weeks it has been one-way traffic.''
The bookies closed betting on the jockey's premiership title within the last 10 days, but would rate Johnson a $1.01 chance or less should they have to set odds for him going into today's meeting, Hunt said.
Though that meant there was still a tiny mathematical chance Johnson could get beaten by Danielle Johnson or Collett it was so small they would rather give their customers some good will and let them enjoy the winnings, he said.
- Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
Updates
Additional information for meetings today.-
M2 Waikato RC
Rider
Race 1: Malambo - Ryan Elliot (a2)
Scratchings
Race 2: Kindaleica.
Race 8: La Casona.
Weather, fine; track, slow7; rail out 10m.
M4 Hawkes Bay RI
Riders:
Race 1: The Grubbyduck - Isaac Lupton
Race 2: Kangaroo - Reece Cole (a3)
Race 4: Ledbury - Linda Wheeler
Race 7: The Fox - Charlie Studd
Race 9: Epic Dreamer - Lisa Allpress
Race 10: Duke Of Millfield - Emily Farr (a2)
Scratchings
Race 1: Her Son
Race 2: Her Son
Race 3: Ooee
Race 4: Rhymic Dancer, No Excuses
Race 9: Turfshaker, Laucala Bay
Race 10: Batabullet
Weather, cloudy; track, slow9; rail out 5.5m