First, a reminder.
Super Rugby might appear to be in constant flux, with teams coming and going, formats changing, finances stretched, crowds fluctuating and angst building over New Zealand apparently turning into a rugby league nation overnight.
But it was not always this way.
The first 10 seasons of a competition then known as the Super 12 were simple and successful.
Twelve teams — five from New Zealand, four from South Africa, three from Australia — played 11 games each. Simple round robin, straight top four, big crowds, every game had meaning ... perfect.
Expansion followed, with the Cheetahs and Force introduced to form the Super 14 from 2006 to 2010. Still a plain round robin (so teams now had 13 games), still a straight top four.
Then came the drunk years.
The Melbourne Rebels were introduced to make it a Super 15 from 2011 to 2015. Teams were bumped up to 16 games each, before top-six playoffs. While 2015 is the greatest season Highlanders fans have experienced, this period brought in a dreaded conference system that has long been part of major American sports but never felt right for Super Rugby.
In 2016 and 2017, there was an unwieldy Super 18 — yes, 18 — with the addition of the Jaguares, Sunwolves and Southern Kings, four conferences and a complicated draw that ended in top-eight playoffs.
With the South Africans departing, Super Rugby as we sort of know it was relaunched in 2022 with 12 teams (Moana Pasifika and Fijian Drua joining the transtasman teams), each getting 14 games (one against each other side and three more with a focus on derby clashes), and a rather nutty eight-team playoff system that allowed a team (ahem, it was the Highlanders) with a 4-10 record to qualify.
The Melbourne Rebels were shuttered after the 2024 season and the playoffs were reduced to six teams.
Moana Pasifika are set to go due to financial constraints, leaving Super Rugby back to 10 teams.
What does the future hold for a competition that has been through a tumultuous period and appears to have lost some of its lustre yet can still turn out rugby at the most entertaining level?
Here are some options.
Super 10
The format: The existing 10 teams play each other side once, and five of those teams twice, thus staying at 14 games.
Yeah: It means Super Rugby can stay as stable as possible after the back-to-back departures of the Melbourne Rebels and Moana Pasifika.
Nah: From 12 to 11 to 10 — how long before the next club goes under and the competition is down to nine? Having just 10 teams means a lot of sameness about the weekly action. And will the playoffs stay at six? Out of 10 teams?
Super 10 (but bigger)
The format: The existing 10 teams play a full double round. Nine games at home, nine games away, followed by a straight top four.
Yeah: Simple and fair. A couple more home games for teams to make some money. And you only end up with teams that deserve to be in the playoffs.
Nah: Ye gods, 18 games. You would need to start in mid-January. There would also be huge costs involved.
Super 10 (but smaller)
The format: The existing 10 teams play a single round, followed by a straight top four.
Yeah: Simple and fair. More compact tournament, so there really would be huge meaning attached to every game.
Nah: Obviously not going to fly. Nine games — just four at home every other year — will not work commercially. Not unless the Super season was followed by some sort of Champions League-style relationship with Japan and/or the top European teams.
Expand horizons
The format: Think big! Bring in teams from Japan, Argentina and the United States.
Nah: We tried the Sunwolves and the Jaguares before. Japan has beefed up its own league, which is played at the same time as Super Rugby. And rugby is a ‘‘sleeping giant’’ in Trump country? Pfft.
Bring back the Boks
The format: Go to Johannesburg and beg the South African teams to return and make a Super 14.
Yeah: The Lions, Sharks, Stormers and Bulls bring commercial heft and an on-field presence that has been sorely lacking since they left.
Nah: Time zones and travel times remain an issue. And the gazelle has bolted — the African teams are not coming back.
Scorched earth
The format: Scrap Super Rugby. Beef up the NPC. Let the top New Zealand players go to Japan or Europe in the first part of the year then return for the All Blacks.
Yeah: No more constant tinkering with franchise rugby. Provincial tribalism rules again. Let the Japanese, French and British magnates pay most of our top players’ salaries.
Nah: There is no chance New Zealand Rugby plans to lose control of its top talent any time soon. The NPC would still not have the best players, and it can’t be shifted earlier in the year.
