The first All Black team of the 2010 international season will be announced tomorrow. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn gets past the walking wounded and comes up with a 26-player squad to battle the Irish and then the Welsh.
At times, the Super 14 is great to watch. But its relevance to test rugby is getting more and more distant by the year.
A match between the Blues and the Reds on a sultry Brisbane night in February has absolutely nothing in common with a test played in June in New Zealand.
Someone who looks good on hard grounds, in calm weather, when the ball is thrown around is going to be facing completely different conditions in the middle of winter.
That will undoubtedly be on the minds of the three wise men when they name their All Black squad tomorrow. The three tests in this opening part of the season are to be played in New Plymouth, Dunedin and Hamilton - all night games in places where the temperature is likely to be in single figures.
Therefore, the emphasis will go back on players who have a sound defence, make few mistakes and know how to play a tight game. Percentage players, they call them.
So, names which have been bandied about such as Rene Ranger, Aaron Cruden or Joe Rokocoko are not going to make it.
The All Black coaches got caught out last year picking, on Super 14 form, players such as Liam Messam and Lelia Masaga, who were found sadly lacking in a tight test match.
Ireland and Wales are going to kick it, and kick it a lot, so keeping hold of the ball and making few mistakes will be paramount.
Unfortunately this counts against Rokocoko, who has looked back to his best this year but still has his moments when going backwards.
If the selectors are going to plump for a big, strong winger then Hosea Gear may be the option, as he looked dynamite in the later stages of the Super 14.
With Mils Muliaina picking up a leg injury, and not fronting in a club game this week after coming back from a broken thumb, Highlanders fullback Israel Dagg may get the nod to back up Cory Jane.
Rudi Wulf should win a wing spot after injury upset his year last season. Ben Smith misses out after not getting many opportunities and trying too hard at times.
The midfield is a case of last man standing, with Benson Stanley and Luke McAlister set to join Conrad Smith, as the cupboard is bare.
Stephen Donald will be Dan Carter's back-up as Aaron Cruden still has lots to learn, while Stephen Brett needs to improve his defence.
Highlanders skipper Jimmy Cowan will be one halfback and Alby Mathewson will probably be the other, though it is a very crowded field, with not much between many.
In the forward pack, no-one has come forward to back up skipper Richie McCaw on the openside, so Adam Thomson will be asked to be his back-up.
Victor Vito should get a run after a consistent season with the Hurricanes but the All Black career looks over for Rodney So'oialo.
The locking ranks have been thinned by injury and Anthony Boric wins by default to join veteran Brad Thorn.
Canterbury youngster Sam Whitelock, who has shown plenty of vigour and speed, may become the third locking option.
The front row looks pretty straightforward: the Franks brothers, along with Tony Woodcock and the ever-favoured Neemia Tialata.
Keven Mealamu is one hooker and while it would be a fairytale if Jason Rutledge made the All Blacks, it is probably not going to happen. Aled de Malmanche is the next cab off the rank in a very average field.
~ POSSIBLE ALL BLACK SQUADS ~
Steve Hepburn - ODT rugby writer
• Fullbacks: Cory Jane, Israel Dagg
• Wingers: Zac Guildford, Rudi Wulf, Hosea Gear
• Midfielders: Conrad Smith, Benson Stanley, Luke McAlister
• First five-eighths: Dan Carter, Stephen Donald
• Halfbacks: Jimmy Cowan, Alby Mathewson
• Loose forwards: Kieran Read, Victor Vito, Richie McCaw (captain), Adam Thomson, Jerome Kaino.
• Locks: Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Anthony Boric
• Props: Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Neemia Tialata, Tony Woodcock
• Hookers: Keven Mealamu, Aled de Malmanche
• New caps: Dagg (Highlanders), Stanley (Blues), Vito (Hurricanes), Whitelock (Crusaders)
• Bolter: Sam Whitelock looked at the start of the year to be very much the fourth-choice lock at the Crusaders. But real enthusiasm, speed and good aerial skills - even the occasional header - has made him leapfrog into All Black contention.
• Gone: Rodney So'oialo or Isaac Ross. So'oialo appears to have put too many miles on the clock and his body is now feeling it while Ross has fallen completely off the radar, becoming the ultimate one-season wonder.
• Unlucky: Ben Smith, Jason Rutledge, Michael Paterson, Kahn Fotuali'i, Andy Ellis, Rene Ranger, Joe Rokocoko.
Brent Edwards - ODT columnist
• Fullback: Cory Jane
• Wingers: Joe Rokocoko, Hosea Gear, Ben Smith
• Midfielders: Conrad Smith, Benson Stanley, Luke McAlister
• First five-eighths: Daniel Carter, Stephen Donald
• Halfbacks: Jimmy Cowan, Alby Mathewson
• Loose forwards: Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Tanerau Latimer, Adam Thomson, Victor Vito
• Locks: Brad Thorn, Anthony Boric, Sam Whitelock
• Props: Tony Woodcock, Neemia Tialata, Owen Franks, Ben Franks
• Hookers: Keven Mealamu, Corey Flynn
