Business confidence outpaces jobs

Cameron Bagrie.
Cameron Bagrie.
Employement confidence around New Zealand may have waned slightly after four quarters of improvement, but business sentiment has been described as ''soaring''.

ANZ's latest business outlook showed business confidence had risen to the highest level seen since March 1999, with 54% of respondents expecting better times ahead.

Firms were ''extremely upbeat'' about their own prospects, profit expectations had hit a 14-year high, employment and general investment intentions remained ''rock solid'', residential and commercial construction intentions remained high, and investment in livestock had risen to the highest reading since August 1993, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said yesterday.

Improving business sentiment had been shared across all regions and the urban areas were ''leading the charge'', he said.

In Otago, employment confidence dropped to 99 points in September, down 3.2 on the 102.1 recorded in the June survey put out by Westpac McDermott Miller.

In contrast, Southland jumped 7.2 points from 98.4 to 105.6. A reading below 100 means more pessimists than optimists.

It seemed reasonable to attribute the sharp rise in confidence in Southland to the recent rescue deal for the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said.

Overall, the confidence index fell to a mildly optimistic 102.8, down 1.4 from the June figure.

While it was still the second-highest reading of the past two years, it underscored the slow and halting pace of improvement in the labour market in the years since the recession ended, Mr Gordon said.

There was a sense that the improvement was accruing more to those already in work than to those seeking it.

Wage growth and job security had seen the biggest lifts from their post-recession lows, but job opportunities were still perceived as slim, he said.

Although business surveys had shown a pick-up in hiring intentions this year, neither job advertisements, official employment figures, nor the employment confidence index suggested those intentions were turning strongly into action yet.

Canterbury reclaimed the top spot for employment confidence, having been briefly overtaken by Waikato in the June quarter as drought concerns eased.

However, employment confidence in Canterbury remained well below pre-recession levels and was not markedly different from the national average in terms of reported wage growth or expected job opportunities.

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