GDP growth surprise to economists

New Zealand's measure of gross domestic product was 0.8% growth for the quarter ending-March, surprising some analysts whose average forecast was at 0.4% growth.

ASB economist Jane Turner said the 0.8% gross domestic product figure was "stronger than expected" and was a "robust" indication of economic growth, saying it was evidence there was "broad-based recovery in economic growth emerging".

"Added to this, the rise in business confidence during the [present] second quarter, to above pre-quake levels, this suggests momentum has continued and we are now more confident the underlying economic recovery has gained traction," Ms Turner said.

The 0.8% growth determined by Statistics New Zealand coincided with further weakening in the US dollar which sent the New Zealand dollar to US84.29c yesterday.

Release of the GDP data had been postponed twice, initially because of Christchurch's February quake and last week for SNZ to recheck findings, leaving economists questioning whether SNZ could accurately measure economic growth.

The extent of the impact on GDP, which measures economic growth, of Christchurch's February quake prompted SNZ to seek additional data from 800 businesses on lost stock values; "critical" information in collating overall stock inventory analysis.

Ms Turner said although retailing and services were disrupted in Christchurch, that appeared to have been offset by strength throughout the rest of New Zealand.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the economy had responded to low interest rates, asset price stabilisation, stronger inward migration and strong global commodity prices.

"The surprise is that the disruptive effect of the February 22 earthquake was not very large on balance," Mr Gordon said.

Manufacturing at 3.6% growth headlined the 0.8% overall national growth, followed by wholesale trade up 1.5% and real estate and business services 1%.

A decline in building meant the construction sector slumped 4.3%.

Mr Gordon said retail spending rose 2%, reversing a sharp drop in last year's fourth quarter.

Government spending rose 2.1%, partly due to a rise in civil defence and emergency management, while agricultural production rose by 1%.

SNZ said the Christchurch inventory losses were removed from the GDP calculation to reflect "economic factors only", and the department was confident its data accurately measured national activity.


February quake
SNZ findings. -

• Commercial property damaged represents less than 1% nationally.
• The 5100 "red zone" houses represent just 0.3% of total 1.6 million homes.
• Most of 500 businesses continued operating after quake.


- simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

Add a Comment