Market Crash or Time to Buy: How does the Dunedin housing market stack up?

A perfect storm is brewing for a resurgence in the New Zealand property market. Due to net migration levels not seen since 1947, New Zealand’s population is booming with the country growing by over 2.5% in 2023. To accommodate this population boost, the country needed to build an additional 50,000 homes last year.  

Unfortunately, the residential construction sector has contracted, and the number of new dwellings consented dropped by 30% year-on-year. This resulted in approximately 30,000 new dwellings being built in 2023, meaning a shortage of some 20,000 homes.

This trend is set to continue into 2024 and across Westpac, ASB, BNZ, ANZ and the RBNZ, the average house price prediction over the next 12 months is for growth of 6.24% with many commentators forecasting double digit growth in 2025.  

Locally, the Dunedin market is facing its own housing crisis, with a current estimated shortage within the Dunedin urban area of 1,500 homes, growing to approximately 4,400 homes by 2030.  

This dramatic housing shortage is exacerbated by the quality of the buildings in Dunedin. One in every five homes is built pre-1920; far more than any other city in New Zealand, and with minimal development over the last decade to resolve this, there is a strong and growing demand for modern, warm housing in the city.

Leading Dunedin home builder TGC Homes, has witnessed first-hand the surge in enquiries driven by the shortage of quality accommodation, and resulting rapid uptake of their new townhouses in prime Dunedin locations.  

This shortage of quality housing has continued to force rents in the city higher and higher, and new builds in particular demand a premium when compared to the market average.  

To throw even more gas on the fire, Dunedin has some of New Zealand’s largest projects in the pipeline. Over the next two decades, there is approximately $4.5 billion worth of new infrastructure planned, starting with the new hospital build. Dunedin’s economy will receive a massive boost as a result of this project, contributing an estimated $429 million GDP.

The hospital build will employ thousands of construction workers over the lifetime of the various projects; workers the city does not currently have and will have to bring in from elsewhere. This localised immigration will put further pressure on a city where the demand for high quality housing is already outstripping supply. 


Brand new, Airbnb consented townhouses on Brunel Street, Mornington 

5 Brunel Street, Mornington, Dunedin
5 Brunel Street, Mornington, Dunedin
Given that rents and property prices are rising, it is time to take advantage of these tailwinds and secure a brand-new Brunel Street Townhouse.

Situated on an elevated site in the sought after suburb of Mornington, locally owned and operated TGC Homes brings you this development consisting of nine townhouses specifically targeting the investor market, all of which have been consented for use as an Airbnb. These properties are designed as high yielding, low maintenance investment properties that both you and your tenants will love: 

  • Centrally located, only 2.5km from the CBD and 300m from the Mornington shops 
  • Northern views out to Mt Cargill and Southern views out to the Pacific 
  • Low maintenance claddings, surfaces, and finishes 
  • Fully turnkey with F&P appliances, curtains, and blinds 
  • Consented for use as an Airbnb 
  • Fully insulated and double glazed 
  • Private courtyards 
  • Long-term rental yields of up to 5.45% 
  • Short-term rental yields of 12-13% 


Show Home – Open Times 

Still not sure? You are welcome to visit our show home at 74 David St, Caversham on Sundays 11am-12pm or Mondays 5pm to 6pm and talk direct with the developer. 

Now is the time to be buying an investment property, to find out more including floor plans, visit Brunel Street

 Or call George Hercus on +64 27 246 9699.


TGC Homes Client Testimonials  

“Whether you are buying your first home or an investment property, TGC should be your first place to go. I’d certainly buy another house from TGC Homes in future.” -  Daryl Quah 


“The TGC team are a privilege to deal with, considering we live out of town. Bought off the plan, the apartment is 10 minutes to Dunedin CBD, extremely happy with the finished unit which includes large kitchen appliances, and landscaping was done, making our prospective tenants decision easy. Time frames for building were consistent with their plan. Definitely recommend TGC 100% to all prospective buyers” – Julie Dobbs  


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