None of the alternative national flags are likely to pose a challenge to the existing flag in upcoming referenda, a new poll shows.
The survey by UMR Research revealed that Kyle Lockwood's two silver fern flags were the most popular choices out of the alternative designs.
An alternative flag will be chosen from five designs through a single transferable vote (STV) system next month, in which voters list their preferences from one to five.
If no flag receives more than 50% of the first preferences, the least popular flags will be eliminated until one design wins half of the votes.
In the UMR survey, 36% of respondents picked Mr Lockwood's Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) as their first preference.
Mr Lockwood's Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) won 33% of the vote, ahead of Aaron Dustin's Red Peak on 18%, Alofi Kanter's Silver Fern (Black and White) on 7%, and Andrew Fyfe's Koru on 6%.
Once the STV method was applied, the red, white and blue silver fern won ahead of the black, white and blue silver fern, but the result was within the margin of error.
In a head-to-head vote, the existing national flag was much more popular than each of the alternative flags.
The most popular alternative in the head-to-head vote was Mr Lockwood's black and blue fern, which won 35% of the vote.
The alternative designs were chosen by a Flag Consideration Panel from a shortlist of 10,300. Four designs were originally chosen by the panel before supporters of Red Peak successfully lobbied Parliament to include it on the list.
The UMR Research poll of 1000 people had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.
Prime Minister John Key said this afternoon that changing the flag was always going to be a difficult task.
But once an alternative flag had been chosen in the first referendum, people's thinking would "crystallise" around a new design, he believed.
"I think you'll see a fair bit of activity around imagery and what a new flag might look like and a more intensified debate," Mr Key said.
"Doesn't mean it's going to be an easy thing to change the flag. But ... I think it's a long way to the finishing line before we see how New Zealanders vote."
The first referendum in November and December this year will ask New Zealanders to rank the alternative flags. The winner will then run against the present flag in a second referendum in March next year.
- By Isaac Davison of the New Zealand Herald
