Coalition parties are reasserting their lead, driven by a surge in support for NZ First - now the third most popular party, the latest political poll shows.
The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, published today, shows NZ First leapfrogging the Greens and ACT for the first time since the poll began in 2021.
NZ First registered 9.8%, up 3.2 points compared to the last poll in June. Just behind, the Greens received 9.4%, up 1.2 points, while ACT came in at 9.1%, unchanged.
The poll also puts National back in the top spot, up 0.4 points to 33.9%, with Labour faltering on 31.6%, down 3.2 points.
Te Pāti Māori had a 0.2-point increase to 3.5%.
On those numbers, the coalition parties would secure 65 seats - up three from last month - compared to 57 seats for the opposition.
The surge in popularity for NZ First comes after leader Winston Peters handed over the deputy prime ministership to ACT's David Seymour at the end of May.
Voters' enthusiasm for both prime ministerial contenders remained muted with just 19.7% naming National's Christopher Luxon as their preference and 19.6% naming Labour's Chris Hipkins.
In third spot was Peters, on 9.3%, then Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick on 7%. Seymour was in fifth on 5.7%.
Asked for their top issues, respondents overall gave the cost-of-living top billing at 21.6%. The economy registered at 19.1%, with health in third place on 13.3%.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
It surveyed 1000 adult New Zealanders - 780 by phone and 220 by online panel - from Wednesday, July 2 through to Sunday, July 6.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age and area. Some 7.9% were undecided on the party vote question.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
