Civil war is looming for Myanmar.
Time is running out for international dialogue to bring about the peaceful restoration of the Southeast Asian nation’s democratically elected government.
Even if that were possible, it is no longer certain that pro-democracy protesters, being killed in increasing numbers by the Myanmar military, will tolerate a return to the pre-coup status quo.
Large-scale, pro-democracy demonstrations have been held throughout Myanmar since the army’s February 1 coup, staged in the wake of the resounding re-election of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party.
In recent weeks, the Tatmadaw - the politically and economically powerful Myanmar military - has increasingly used violence against the protesters.
The death toll is variously estimated at between 150 and 300. More than 2200 people have been arrested and detained.
Ross Wilson, of UnionAid, says he understands high level talks are taking place between the United States and China to try to resolve the crisis.
The US, China, Russia and Singapore each have their own reasons for wanting to see the Tatmadaw soldiers return to barracks, Wilson, who is based in Wellington but lived in Myanmar when working for the International Labour Organisation, says.
The aim of the talks would likely be to exert pressure on the coup leaders to reinstate the NLD government in return for the army retaining its position of power in the country.
But it is increasingly unlikely that the citizens of Myanmar consider that a tolerable future.
Talk of preparations for civil war are growing daily among the overwhelmingly peaceful protesters.
‘‘We are going to fight the army by any means. . . by any weapons we can get,’’ the message sent yesterday states.
‘‘Six decades under military is too much. This coup must be the last one for our country.
‘‘People are going to fight by any weapons they can get very soon, all over the country.’’
Wilson confirms his contacts are also expressing the desire to bring about change at all costs. But he is unsure how the general populace would fare against the well-equipped and ruthless Tatmadaw.
‘‘The protesters have an invidious choice . . . They are in a desperate situation.’’
An ace up the sleeve of the Myanmar’s citizens, most of whom are ethnically Bamar, is potential alliances with the country’s score of ethnic minority, armed, separatist groups.
It is reported some of those private armies have already stepped up attacks on the Tatmadaw, drawing resources away from its attempts to quell protests in the Bamar-heavy cities.
