Global Insight: 'People power is not over in the Mid East'

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Protests in Algeria and Sudan are symptoms of three forces that will bring ongoing change in the Arab world, Professor Robert Patman predicts.

Some see this week's death of Mohamed Mursi as a symbol of the failure of the Arab Spring.

That would be premature, Prof Patman, an international relations specialist at the University of Otago, says.

Mursi was the first democratically elected leader of Egypt, brought to power by Arab Spring protests that swept several North African and Middle East nations in 2011, toppling regimes in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Yemen. Mursi died on June 17 in the custody of the military-backed government that pushed him out of power in 2013.

NO ARCHIVEPeople flash Rabia signs as they hold a picture of former Egyptian president Mursi during a symbolic funeral prayer in Istanbul. Photo: Reuters
People flash Rabia signs as they hold a picture of former Egyptian president Mursi during a symbolic funeral prayer in Istanbul. Photo: Reuters

"Just because the changes unleashed by the Arab Spring did not immediately work out as hoped by the protesters that supported those changes, it doesn't mean they are not going to have long-lasting effects,'' Prof Patman says.

He cites three "drivers'' that played a role in the Arab Spring and are still at play, which he believes will result in more political and social change in the region.

"Those drivers of economic decline, demographic increases and repression are going to combine for further upheavals.''

Ongoing protests in Algeria and Sudan are inspired by memories of the Arab Spring oustings of dictators who had previously been seen as untouchable, he says.

"I think people power is not over in the Middle East. We could see further convulsions in the future.''

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