Pandemic health measures are about to ease but that does not mean that the pandemic is over, health officials warn.
Today, crowds will flock to Forsyth Barr Stadium for the first mass gathering in Dunedin for months, even though case numbers each day across Otago and Southland consistently top 1000.
"Hopefully, people in Southern realise that, at best, we are at our case numbers peak, and we may well not be there now," Southern District Health Board medical officer of health Michael Butchard said.
"We may just be at the start of a slow peak over the next three weeks, and I think people will act accordingly."
Dr Butchard said it was too soon to know if the region had peaked, and that it was possible the South could experience several peaks.
"Looking at data from other DHBs, it seems that several have had a peak in the week, a dip in the weekend and then another peak and then another dip.
"Waikato DHB had four peaks of a similar size, and we could follow that pattern and this would be where we would be for the next three to four weeks."
Other factors that could affect the number and nature of peaks included when certain age groups, particularly the elderly, were most exposed to Covid-19, and how the disease progressed in distinct regions.
"In Dunedin, we had an early peak in the student population and in Queenstown a small early peak in hospitality, but we are now seeing a definite increasing in Invercargill and Queenstown," Dr Butchard said.
Of the 1245 new cases reported in the South yesterday, 371 were in Dunedin, 233 in Invercargill and 208 in Queenstown-Lakes.
New Ministry of Education statistics showed 78% of Otago and Southland schools had at least one case of Covid-19 among their pupils, behind only Canterbury for the most affected region in the country.
Abbotsford School principal Stephanie Madden, a member of the New Zealand Educational Institute principals council, said anecdotally the ministry figures lined up with what she had heard from other school heads.
"I am hearing of more and more schools who are losing staff to
it, either being ill or having to isolate, and that is probably the greatest challenge for us now, if more staff are lost to it".
Ms Madden said schools were receiving excellent support and were now used to handling potential cases.
Nationally, the Ministry of Health reported the deaths of a further 13 people with Covid-19, all in the North Island. Overall case numbers dropped again yesterday, from 18,423 to 15,871.
There were 899 people who had Covid-19 in hospital yesterday.
Of those, 13 were in Dunedin Hospital, seven in Southland Hospital and one in Lakes.
Dr Butchard said current hospitalisation rates were manageable but they were expected to rise.
"I think looking at national modelling, at the moment our hospitalisations are on a low curve, and if we continue to track along that low line we can expect our numbers be about 30, and it would not surprise me if we started to track slightly above that line."
That was because there was a high proportion of elderly in the South and elsewhere older people had tended to be the last to catch the disease, Dr Butchard said.
"Even if we are lucky enough to be at the peak now, and we might not be, our elderly people will peak later and it is they who are more likely to be hospitalised."
