Energy company shares rise amid relief at National victory

Andrew Rooney
Andrew Rooney
New Zealand's electricity sector breathed a sigh of relief yesterday, with shares in energy companies soaring after National's emphatic election win, Forsyth Barr broker Andrew Rooney said.

It was the electricity sector that faced the biggest threat from a non-National government and it had followed the opinion polls closely heading into the election.

The fact National was able to govern without the need for support from New Zealand First was an added bonus, as NZ First's electricity policy was also potentially damaging to investors, he said.

Labour and the Greens proposed regulating the electricity industry, forming New Zealand Power to be the sole buyer and seller of electricity to the market.

Mr Rooney expected electricity would remain in the political spotlight. However, the NZ Power policy did not figure greatly in the thinking of voters and was primarily designed to frustrate the asset sales programme, he said.

''We believe the most likely outcome is the NZ Power policy will fall quietly by the wayside.''

Contact Energy

Earnings: unchanged.
Target price: up 15c to $6.25.
Rating: unchanged at outperform.

''We have increased our target price following the increase in our discounted cash flow [DCF] valuation and a reassessment of the market multiples we expect Contact to trade on.

''The increase in our target price is modest, as we believe most of the upside from a National election victory has already been priced into the market.''

Genesis Energy

Earnings: unchanged.
Target price: increased 6c to $1.86.
Rating: unchanged at neutral.

Forsyth Barr had eliminated the DCF discount it had been running from the threat from the implementation of the NZ Power policy, Mr Rooney said.

The target price increase was modest because most of the upside from the National victory had been priced in.

Meridian Energy

Earnings: unchanged.
Target price: up 7c to $1.50.
Rating: downgraded from outperform to neutral.

In the two weeks before the election, Meridian had been one of the strongest performers in the market, increasing 18% to $1.45 and outperformed its peers by about 12%, Mr Rooney said.

''While we believe there is some additional performance left, most of it has gone.''

Mighty River Power

Earnings: unchanged.
Target price: up 10c to $2.70.

The increase in the target price was modest because the gains had been priced in.

Trustpower

Earnings: unchanged.
Target price: up 20c to $7.85.
Rating: unchanged to outperform.

Again, the upside from National's win had been priced in.

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