Demographics call for fresh approach

All roads lead to Central? The pioneer gold miners, with their single-minded pursuit of the...
All roads lead to Central? The pioneer gold miners, with their single-minded pursuit of the golden wealth, chose the "Old Dunstan Track" as the most direct route from Dunedin into the inland parts of Otago. Photo by Craig Baxter
The year 2011 is an historically important year to Otago, and not just because we will have a few football players and thousands of lively spectators at the newly constructed all-weather stadium. For it will be 150 years since gold was discovered at Gabriel's Gully, behind the now attractively sited Lawrence township.

It was also at this time that the Otago Daily Times and, soon after, the Evening Star daily newspapers first appeared on the streets of Dunedin and elsewhere.

In the following bustling decade, Otago Boys' High School and the University of New Zealand, together with such well-known factories and firms as Gregg's, Cadbury, Ross & Glendining Woollen Mills and Wright Stephenson Stock and Agency were established. And a little later, there was a further string of commercial enterprises with their branches scattered throughout New Zealand and which, in those days, often conducted their head office administration from the city: Hallenstein Bros, Standard Insurance, Union Steamship Company, Donaghys Rope & Twine, Kempthorne Prosser pharmaceutical and fertiliser, DIC and other well-known names.

Then followed the famous cable cars. Dunedin was a city of international recognition and the leading business dynamo of New Zealand. One hundred years later (by the 1970s), not much had changed, except that postwar growth was concentrated in Auckland and elsewhere.

Many of the smaller townships scattered throughout Otago, such as Queenstown and Wanaka, were little lakeside camping holiday villages for the hard-working families of Dunedin and Invercargill.

But two key changes were becoming increasingly evident. Downstream processing of Otago hinterland produce was moving away from the former Dunedin factory base, along with the drift north of local residents seeking well-paid jobs.

The big woollen mills closed and administrative head office teams moved closer to the markets up north.

At the same time, international tourism came along with the wide-bodied jet aircraft.

Initially, Dunedin and other Otago and Southland centres captured no less than 37% of the new coach tour overnight stopovers registered in New Zealand.

Despite the depressing succession of manufacturers and other business concerns moving north, Dunedin was saved by the unprecedented expansion of university undergraduate students coming predominately from the bigger centres of population to the north.

Next year's five-yearly census will confirm the spectacular growth that has taken place in the Central Otago and Queenstown Lakes districts in recent decades.

While the provincial residential population has changed very little in the past 40 years, the numbers who have settled in the Upper Clutha catchments have more than doubled, and greatly exceeded city growth (3%).

By contrast, in the remaining Clutha and Waitaki districts, a decline has occurred.

Recently, the annual Business Demographic Trends survey (conducted in mid-February every year) was published.

This is the single most important survey of business employment and has been closely monitored for more than 15 years.

Since the turn of the century, surveyed jobs have increased by 61% in the Central Otago and Queenstown Lakes districts, 15% in Dunedin and 16% in the remainder of Otago.

So the inland districts took 38% of the new jobs and now account for approaching 20% of all the jobs in Otago today.

Looking ahead, Statistics New Zealand is predicting a residential population growth in the next 25 years of 42% in Auckland, 21% in Canterbury and 13% in Otago.

But within Otago there is a big difference between the inland districts (52%), Dunedin City (6%) and the rest of Otago (a decrease of 7%).

If one adds Southland in terms of recent employment and residential growth, the outstanding dominance of the Central Otago and Queenstown Lakes districts becomes even more apparent.

With Queenstown and its neighbouring settlements attaining city status in the foreseeable future, it is clearly important that we all take some time to reflect on future regional strategies and revise them, taking into account the quite unprecedented period of demographic change upon us today.

A newly emerging city in and around Queenstown has changed forever the demographic landscape of both Otago and Southland.

It is my view that a major stakeholder review of provincial development and the way the various districts are linked to mutual advantage should be undertaken. The district mayoral Otago Forward forum co-ordinated by the Otago Regional Council needs some fresh input.

The change in personnel from the recent local body election could provide an appropriate opportunity for such a strategic blueprint analysis.

Dunedin has lost some momentum for sustainable modest growth with the marked weakening of former useful commercial linkages.

The spectacular advance of the Queenstown airport, shortly due to have a passenger flow of a million travellers a year, the almost total reliance upon the present motor highways for physical linkage between Queenstown and Dunedin and the relative isolation of Central Otago from growing international tourism flows should be reassessed.

The pioneer gold miners, with their single-minded pursuit of the golden wealth, chose the Old Dunstan Track as the most direct route from Dunedin into the inland parts of Otago.

Even though we already have three feeder highways through Palmerston, Middlemarch and Milton, the fact is that a more direct highway could do much to restore a closer partnership between the different resource bases of Dunedin and Queenstown.

Such a vision was investigated in the 1970s, but since those days the technologies and highway design processes have advanced materially.

The experience gained in upgrading the Crown Range link between Queenstown and Wanaka, the Lindis Pass tourism route, the Cromwell Gorge improvements and the lakeside highway to Glenorchy all offer some clue to the benefits likely to flow from such a fresh, longer-term commitment.

In the absence of such highway linkage improvement, there will need to be a substantial investment in the inland district public health and tertiary education facilities.

• Jolyon Manning is a former chief executive of the Otago Council. He lives in Alexandra.

 

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