Making up

United States President Barack Obama entered office declaring one of his goals was to restore America's reputation among its allies and friends and to change the somewhat isolationist foreign policy of his conservative predecessor.

His choice of Hillary Clinton as secretary of state appeared to underline that purpose, and Mrs Clinton has since then worked diligently in pursuit of her president's goals.

There has been much to do, not least with countries bounded by the Pacific Rim flanked on either side by the two giants of the world's economies, if not its ideologies.

Indeed, it is the potential influence of China within the Asia-Pacific region that has motivated the US State Department, finally, to turn more attention from the West to the East.

New Zealand is part of that new focus, admittedly a very minor cog, but nevertheless one which - despite 25 years of tension - America has deemed worthy of attention.

Mrs Clinton's previously postponed visit to these shores this week was therefore an acknowledgement of New Zealand's importance in America's new Pacific policy, for the secretary and her advisers will be acutely aware that this country has a free trade agreement with China, that it enjoys a huge trade advantage with the Asian superpower, and that it has had a remarkably stable and long-standing relationship with communist Beijing, including 38 years of formal diplomatic relations.

This relationship is one of our most valuable and important.

China is our second-largest trading partner as well as a major source of migrants, students and tourists.

It is an exceedingly cordial link, too, and at the highest levels.

President Hu visited in 2005 and Premier Wen in 2006 and our prime ministers have visited China in 2005, 2008, 2009 and 2010; vice-premiers or members of the Politburo visit annually.

None of this will have been lost on the State Department; the comparison with equivalent links between Wellington and Washington since the Anzus fallout appears uneven.

The US remains a significant trading partner but a free trade agreement - a New Zealand objective for more than 10 years through three presidencies - remains unfulfilled.

 

It now looks to be entirely futile: the participation of the US in the Trans-Pacific Partnership with New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Singapore, Australia, Peru, Vietnam and Malaysia means barriers could be lifted to our exports over time, two-way trade and investment expanded, and given equal access with our competitors to the US market.

It is the best we can hope for and it is far from certain.

It is likely that with a Republican trade-friendly majority in Congress, progress will be made at a faster rate.

However, we already have free trade agreements or effective agreements in the partnership with all but Peru and the US.

Hopes, therefore, that the so-called "Wellington Declaration" signed on Thursday might represent a leap in opportunity are overstated.

Even Mrs Clinton acknowledged the declaration was more symbol than substance.

The niceties of the diplomatic dance bear little relevance to what is taking place away from the photo opportunities.

A successful Trans-Pacific Partnership would mean the creation of a substantial US-influenced trading bloc on China's doorstep, possibly increasing tensions between the two great powers since China is itself seeking to establish a similar grouping with some of its neighbours.

"Friendship", cash and "aid" are now being lavished on many island states in the Pacific by the two powers.

We are no exception.

New Zealand has, in recent years, been identified by various visiting US dignitaries as an ally (though only informally), a very, very, very close friend - but not a formal ally because that would require a security pact (such as with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines) and we do not have one - and now a "partner", which elevates the relationship but only in strategic terms.

We resumed sharing secret intelligence with the US only last October and the declaration's intent to maintain formal annual talks - although only at military and foreign minister level - is indicative of a relationship that to all outward appearances is improving, if cautiously.

"Increased security co-operation" has been exchanged for the 24-year-old formal US ban on joint military exercises.

New Zealand needs friends and we would be foolish to dismiss this olive branch from Washington.

It is the outcome of years of work and persuasion by our own diplomats and politicians.

The relationship will never be what it was before 1985, and the need for a new co-operative arrangement has been long overdue; we have too many shared interests and too much shared history.

"There is so much that I think we can do to fill in the blanks of the Wellington Declaration," Mrs Clinton declared.

New Zealanders will watch with keen interest how those blanks are stocked.

 

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