In April, IAG chief executive Phil Gibson highlighted just how extreme our weather is becoming. He quoted a statistic from the IAG Wild Weather Tracker that, in the past year, the incidence of storms has more than doubled to one every eight days on average.
Over the 15 years before that, a storm typically affected parts of New Zealand once every 19 days.
But while it is possible the one in eight days figure is aberrant, the anecdotal evidence — what we see and read about, what we experience ourselves — definitely backs it up. Most of us realise that, with climate change, the probability is very low that such a high level of regularity is going to go into reverse in future years and things will become more clement.
With New Zealand now entering what are often some of its most stormy months, we need to prepare for the fact that if we have settled weather one week, the chances are next week will be volatile and causing damage somewhere.
The latest annual climate-change survey from IAG, released yesterday and the ninth of its kind, shows how gloomy Kiwis are becoming about these constant battles with the elements and how poorly they believe this government is leading efforts to deal with climate risks.
The survey of 1000 people in May by Ipsos for New Zealand’s largest insurer reveals only 27% of respondents have confidence the country can reduce climate repercussions, compared with 42% who are not so sanguine. This is the fifth consecutive year that pessimism has outweighed optimism.
As the survey says, New Zealand is quickly approaching a fork in the road. One way promises better-managed risks, greater economic resilience and a more insurable future. However, Kiwis sense we are heading towards the other road with its opposite outcomes.
While a few diehard climate-change deniers continue to corner themselves and bat away the evidence of the science and their own eyes, the poll says most New Zealanders are well aware of the implications of a warmer atmosphere and expect the intensity and frequency of severe weather to grow, along with the effects of that on their homes, communities and businesses.
Ninety-two percent expect more extreme and frequent flooding, 91% expect more coastal inundation and 81% believe there will be more and bigger wildfires.
Many are concerned about how the growing risk will affect their insurance costs and ability to secure cover, 74% saying they accept they will have to pay more if they are in a high-risk location.
Fifty-five percent also accept they may not be able to get insurance in such places.
Half of those surveyed worry they won’t be able to afford house and contents insurance in future while 84% said insurers should work with central and local government to keep insurance affordable and available.
The poll shows that 58% who participated see the government as most responsible for acting on climate change. Interestingly, that is up from 25% in 2018, which probably echoes the backward steps the coalition has taken on the issue, an assumption backed up by the fact that only 21% in this survey thinks the government is doing a good job.
While the poll leans heavily towards questions on insurance, which is to be expected, the broader findings are useful and reflective of what most reasonable-minded New Zealanders think about the effects of climate change on their lives.
The points it makes will resonate strongly with the people of South Dunedin, going through the unsettling process of finding out what their futures will look like as a consequence of mitigating against climate change.
The survey concludes that its participants do not want ‘‘a world of growing risk and impacts, where insurance becomes out of reach, property values erode and people are left behind’’.
The government needs to take notice of this latest work and ponder how its efforts of the past three years have helped Kiwis feel more secure in the face of such relentless change.
