Arrowtown-based regional economist Benje Patterson says the Central Lakes could have the South Island’s second-largest population in 15 years.
Speaking at the Queenstown Business Chamber of Commerce’s first Westpac Smarts seminar of the year on Friday, Patterson said, if the sustained, compounding growth trends in Queenstown, Wānaka and Cromwell continue, the area could be home to about 160,000 people by 2041, outstripping Dunedin by about 20,000.
‘‘That’s not something that’s even been remotely on the radar of government departments,’’ he says.
‘‘That is the reality of the inertia.
‘‘That is not a projection, that is just a consequence of us continuing on our same pathway.’’
The local economy grew by almost 3% last year; international arrivals at Queenstown Airport for January alone were sitting almost 10% higher than January ’24; commercial accommodation occupancy for that same month in Queenstown was just over 90%; and there was 6% growth in the number of businesses in the resort last year - about six times the national rate.
On population growth, though, Patterson says it’s critical the right projection scenarios are used to inform planning and investment for infrastructure, which often have 10- to 20-years lead-time.
‘‘If we’re Dunedin, it doesn’t matter if we get our projections wrong, because Dunedin grows by a percent, at best.
‘‘Great that Dunedin’s getting a $2 billion hospital, but in 20 years we’re going to need that same hospital, because we’re going to have more people than Dunedin.
‘‘That’s one of the challenges when it comes to talking to central government agencies - wrapping their head around the consequences of our sustained, compounding high rate of growth.’’
Statisticians, he says, should factor in building consents to inform predictions, and, in term, infrastructure investment.
In Queenstown, it’s telling.
Patterson says there’s been an ‘‘outrageous spike’’ in building consents here over the past 12 months - 1700 in the 12 months to December, resulting in up to 5000 new residents - with another 190 consented in January alone.
‘‘That January result, in absolute terms, Queenstown-Lakes was the third-biggest consenting authority in the country.
‘‘The only places we were behind [Christchurch and Auckland] have between 10 to 30 times our population.’’
And when new developments, such as Ladies Mile and Homestead Bay are factored in - equating to about 20,000 new residents between them - and proposed fast-track developments, there’s no signs of our growth slowing.
‘‘If we continue that sort of trajectory that we’ve been on for the past 20 years ... we’d end up with almost 70,000 people within five years.’’
