Before the World Cup got under way, the Black Caps seemed about the fourth or fifth-best team at the tournament.
South Africa melted away quickly and that left New Zealand well placed. But consecutive defeats to Pakistan and Australia has seen that safe ground tremor a touch.
The South African threat has been replaced by the looming Pakistan and potentially Bangladesh if it was successful against India this morning.
That means tonight's game against England at Chester-le-Street becomes extra important.
The Black Caps could lose and still make the semifinals. But that would mean they would go into a semifinal, potentially against Australia, on the back of three consecutive loses. The couch would suddenly feel like lava.
England will take some beating. The home side has passed 300 runs in five of its eight games. Its batting depth is just frightening.
But New Zealand has one of the better bowling units and all-rounder Jimmy Neesham told NZME the bowlers have been doing their research.
''We've spent a lot of time looking at their play over the last couple of years.
''They're a real aggressive team and come out and try and put you on the back foot straight away,'' Neesham said.
''They've got any number of players who can do damage; they've got a lot of versatility in their line-up as well.
''For us it's about trying to make early inroads - if we can get them two or three down early, we know that's a lot of pressure to carry for their middle order.''
The Black Caps rode a wave of confidence through the early stages of the tournament.
They won their first three games and had the game against India abandoned. How important is that one point now?
If the Black Caps had played that game and lost then the game against England would be a virtual quarterfinal.
The wicket got sticky after that rained off game against India. But Kane Williamson held the team together. He anchored the four-wicket win against South Africa with an undefeated 106.
Williamson did it again against the West Indies. He found himself taking guard for the second ball of the match after Martin Guptill was out for a golden duck.
The skipper's 148 from 154 formed the bedrock for the tense five-run win. The Black Caps skinned through and could do no wrong, but, to the more seasoned observers, there was plenty to improve.
Two all-rounders was one too many. Opener Colin Munro's position was becoming untenable. Wicketkeeper Tom Latham looked even less at home at the crease than he did behind the stumps, and the three of the ''fab four'' were not going as well as we hoped.
Guptill was not scoring the runs we expected. Boult was not getting the ball to bend like we have become used to, and Ross Taylor was more hesitant than heavy-handed.
Losses to Pakistan and Australia followed and those flaws were more apparent. But what really became obvious is Williamson needs more help, please.
New Zealand v England
Chester-le-Street, 9.30pm
Black Caps: Martin Guptill, Henry Nicholls, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham, Jimmy Neesham, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, Lockie Ferguson, Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Colin Munro, Matt Henry, Tom Blundell.
England: Jason Roy, Jonny Bairstow, Joe Root, Eoin Morgan, Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Jafra Archer, Adil Rashid, Mark Wood, Liam Plunkett, James Vince, Tom Curran, Liam Dawson.
