In his book Outliers, New York Times best-selling writer Malcolm Gladwell argues societies are profoundly wrong in the ways they make sense of success.
Too often, he writes, the cult of personality projects a person's accomplishments as pure proof of their inherent greatness, as if the deeds themselves provided a window to the soul of the doer:
"The people who stand before kings may look like they did it all themselves. But in fact they are invariably the beneficiaries of hidden advantages, extraordinary opportunities and cultural legacies that allow them to learn and work hard and make sense of the world in ways that others cannot."
Gladwell cites Canadian psychologist Roger Barnesley's account of a trend in junior ice hockey leagues in Canada, which he wrote were previously considered meritocracies.
It was discovered an incredibly large percentage of the leading players were born in the first three months of the year.
"In all my years in psychology, I have never run into an effect this large ...You don't even need to do any statistical equations. You just look at it."
Then the penny dropped with a thud like a rock: the cut-off date that decided the age grade in Canadian junior ice hockey was January 1, meaning a child born on January 2 would be playing against opposition as many as 364 days younger than himself.
In a country that scours its rinks and frozen rivers for players for representative teams for children as young as 9, that many days equates to quite an advantage.
The theory went: the physical advantages enjoyed by those old for their grade meant better odds of making early representative teams, which meant extra games each season under better coaches among better players.
That, in turn, meant half of every generation of young Canadian ice hockey players never were.
Now, keep the Outliers theory in mind and look at the birthdates of these rugby players:
Corey Flynn 5.1.1981
Tony Woodcock 27.1.1981
Kevin Mealamu 20.3.1979
Adam Thomson 23.3.1982
Liam Messam 25.3.1984
Ben Franks 27.3.1984
Jerome Kaino 6.4.1983
Ali Williams 30.4.1981
Andrew Hore 13.9.1978
Sam Whitelock 12.10.1988
John Afoa 16.10.1983
Kieran Read 26.10.1983
Brad Thorn 3.12.1978
Jarrad Hoeata 12.12.1982
Owen Franks 23.12.1987
Richie McCaw 31.12.1980
Do you see it? The pattern, and the echoes of Gladwell?
Check out the birth months of the 2011 All Black forward pack in splits:
January-April: eight players.
May-August: zero players.
September-December: eight players.
Of the16 All Black forwards, not a single one is born in the middle third of the year.
In terms of probability, without adjusting for monthly variations in the number of births, the chance of no forwards being born in the middle third of the year is 656.84 to 1.
The pattern persists through each of the New Zealand Super 15 forward packs - not a single team had more forwards born in the middle third of the year than the first.
In total, including all squad members listed on the various teams' websites, 39 forwards born early in the year signed Super 15 contracts for the 2011 season, compared with just 19 players born in May, June, July or August. A further 33 players were born late in the year.
And the cut-off date for junior rugby in New Zealand? January 1.
The eight All Blacks forwards born late in the year would seem to disprove the theory, but they might be the exception that proves the rule.
Youngsters like McCaw, Franks, Read, Whitelock and Thorn likely would have made it regardless of which month they were born, and may even have prospered by being young for their year in a comparatively amateur junior system.
The bulk of the current squad was born in the late to mid 1980s - a decade before Rupert Murdoch tried to turn the rugby union world upside down and footy became a viable way for athletic freaks to make their fortunes.
Now look at the world champion 2011 New Zealand under-20 forwards, who were likely in kindergarten when Murdoch made his move:
Sam Cane 13.1.1992
Michael Kainga 28.1.1991
Luke Whitelock 29.1.1991
Solomona Sakalia 2.2.1991
Codie Taylor 1.03.1991
Brad Shields 2.4.1991
Dominic Bird 9.4.1991
Steven Luatua 29.4.1991
Gregory Pleasents-Tate 2.5.1991
Brodie Retallick 31.5.1991
Sefo Setefano 6.6.1991
Heiden Badwell.Curtis 25.6.1991
Carl Axtens 26.8.1991
Ben Tamuifuna 30.8.1991
January-April births: eight.
May-August: six.
September-December: zero.
Now the backs, which are nearly a mirror image:
Brad Weber 17.1.1991
TJ Perenara 23.1.1992
Lima Sopoaga 3.2.1991
Francis Saili 16.2.1991
Glen Robertson 20.2.1991
Mitchell Scott 2.3.1991
Rhys Llewellyn 14.3.1991
Waisake Naholo 8.5.1991
Gareth Anscombe 10.5.1991
Beauden Barrett 27.5.1991
Nathan George 13.6.1991
Charles Piutau 31.10.1991
January-April: seven.
May-August: four.
September-December: one.
A total of 15 of the best 26 young rugby players New Zealand has to offer were born within the four months following New Year's Day - 15 times more than were born in the last four months of the year.
Of the 26, a grand total of three players have birthdays after June 25.
The anomaly cannot be explained away by variations in the birth rates of individual months.
March has been the most common months for births since 1980, followed by October, September, August, December, July, January, May, November, June, April and February.
All up, the final third of the year has averaged the most births since 1980 (19494 per year); the second third, the second-most (18933 per year); and the first third, the fewest (18742 per year).
Essentially, all this proves nothing. The seven teams considered here make up a sample size too small to be considered representative of anything.
All that remains are maybes.
Maybe professionalism is becoming more professional, and the line between success and obscurity so sharp that trivial distinctions like the date a player was born can decide his fate.
Maybe if McCaw, Read, Franks, Whitelock and Thorn were born a decade later even they would have disappeared along with countless other promising youngsters born too late, or too early.
Maybe the spiral is getting tighter, and farmers and all other manner of large, burly, tall, swift and rugged Kiwis should immediately lock up their sons and daughters.
Soon, maybe only children conceived in early April will have a "differentiated experience" different enough to have any chance of donning the black jersey.
Or maybe someone should look into other New Zealand institutions which isolate children at an early age based on performance.
