That would contribute about 0.33% to GDP.
"More optimistic assumptions about multiplier effects would suggest a stronger impact during months which are normally a tourist down-time. Winning the World Cup would also boost general confidence."
Dr Bollard adopted a lighter note yesterday in a speech to the Canterbury Employers Chamber of Commerce which was otherwise heavy on detail and the economic risks ahead for New Zealand and the rest of the world.
He pondered how likely was it that New Zealand would win the World Cup so he asked the Reserve Bank's "expert team of forecasters" that question.
"They pointed out several solid facts: we have always won the World Cup at home [1987]; we will have a Cantabrian leading the team and another directing the back-line. Our expert team of forecasts predict that on average, the All Blacks will beat Australia in the final at Eden Park by 23.9 to 15.6
"In his speech, Dr Bollard said the recovery was expected to pick up, but a wide range of scenarios could impact upon the recovery in the year ahead. The behaviour of people and businesses had changed significantly since the global financial crisis, making economic forecasting particularly difficult.
"We have little from history to guide us about how enduring or deep these changes may be. In addition, the recovery has been rocky and fragile."
The financial crisis had been a deep and damaging event, he said.
Even in New Zealand, which had been less affected, recovery had been slow and patchy.
In fact, 2010 was a disappointing year, he said.
"We initially saw recovery happening, but the second half went unexpectedly soft - as it did in many OECD countries. During 2011, we expect the recovery to pick up and gradually become more secure."
Several international dynamics could affect people and businesses in the year ahead, including further economic gloom in the United States, Dr Bollard said.
However, it was just as possible the US could surprise with economic strength this year.
In that scenario, the US dollar would presumably appreciate, taking some pressure off the New Zealand currency and providing an improved opportunity to rebalance the economy towards export growth.
Other international risks included sovereign debt reaching crisis point, emerging markets over-heating and an intensification of the commodity boom, he said.
"New Zealand farmers are still recovering from the last commodity boom when some over-committed and are still looking to reduce the debt they built up."
A more measured reaction this time was important, Dr Bollard said.
New Zealand was well placed to benefit from some of those changes through 2011 but a continued escalation of oil prices could cause world growth to suffer again, as well as adding inflationary pressure globally.
Domestic risks with the potential to derail the central bank's forecasts included further fragility in the financial markets and New Zealanders continuing to save and not spend - beyond what might be expected after a marked recession.
"This will cast a pall of gloom over the market with homeowners keeping houses off the market, not rebuilding and trying to pay off mortgages faster, saving more and spending less. The construction and retail sectors would suffer as a result."
