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The National Aerospace Centre near Christchurch expects to tap intense global demand for rocket launches to get private investment for New Zealand's second launchpad.
Tāwhaki says it has several European companies interested in a spaceport at Kaitorete Spit south of Christchurch.
Plans "just need commercial ignition", said acting chief executive John Holt.
The government has all but ruled out any further capital investment in the near term due to fiscal constraints, and an official briefing said the lack of subsidies for launchpads was a "key challenge".
But Holt expected overseas investment could establish a test pad for rockets within two years.
"There is a lot more intensity around vertical launch services" than just a year ago, he told RNZ.
He heads to the United States this week and has just returned from Europe talking to potential investors. There were "less than five" interested, he said, and would not name them.
'Never been a more open time'
Tāwhaki pivoted away from rockets just 18 months ago at the government's direction due to lack of customers, and turned more towards its second prong of advanced aviation.
But it was now pivoting back to focus on both, Holt said, as demand - both commercial and defence, and most often both or dual demand - ramped up.
"A significant number of new people to talk to ... have come to us.
"There's never been a more open time.
"We're as close as somebody giving us the commercial basis to push 'go' on a build."
A concrete pad without a big launch tower for rocket testing could be developed pretty quickly, he said.
As for scale, he referred to Canada, where a military-led CA$200 million 10-year deal to lease a spaceport in Nova Scotia was announced in March.
'New Zealand is not well positioned to match'
Many countries are racing to establish spaceports though it can be risky: The UK's efforts have been set back since 2024 by a rocket exploding during a test and two launch companies collapsing.
The Times reported huge US contractor Lockheed Martin abandoned launch attempts from the Shetland Islands, though it had received big government subsidies.
The official briefings to Space Minister Chris Penk released under the Official Information Act said that unlike many competitors New Zealand did not fund a space programme.
"Government support for space R&D to date has been ad hoc," said one in May.
Another in April said, "A key challenge is that other countries are looking to develop or attract launch capability by actively subsidising launch development and offering the use of fully developed spaceports to attract operators, incentives New Zealand is not well positioned to match.
"It is likely some government co-investment would be expected by vertical launch operators considering establishing launch activities at Tāwhaki."
Most of the other challenges to tapping the vertical launch market were blanked out.
'Competitive advantage'
Yet the government also wants a "national mission" to develop, manufacture and launch a sovereign satellite or satellite constellation.
Penk told RNZ government support for Tāwhaki had been substantial, putting in $35m since 2021.
It also benefited from moves to streamline aerospace regulations that "will give New Zealand a competitive advantage internationally", said Penk on Tuesday.
Plus it had got a permanent Special Use Airspace zone to make aerospace tests easier, he said.
The government recently lifted a national cap of 100 rocket launches set in law to 1000 "to support growth", and had cut in half from 11 to 5.5 weeks the time it took for officials and the spy agencies to approve payloads carried on rockets (like satellites).
'Increasingly pivoted to ... defence'
A briefing to the minister in June about Tāwhaki said, "The New Zealand aerospace sector has increasingly pivoted to meet rising defence demands, both domestically and internationally.
"This is reflected in activities hosted at Tāwhaki, including the recent Dawn Aerospace DARTE demonstration" - a radar tracking experiment with the NZ navy.
Holt told RNZ Tāwhaki was taking the overlap of commercial and defence into account.
Its board on Friday was expected to confirm a policy on dual-use, such around any launches that might put offensive weapons into space.
"We have boundaries to what it is we would look at doing and what we would not do," he said.
"It's a trillion-dollar market and we think that we can find that sliver of that market which is great for the New Zealand economy and growing all our aerospace ambitions that also sits alongside our values."
Commercial demand is coming from the likes of Amazon's Project Kuiper that last week sought federal US approval to launch 5000 satellites from 2028 using multiple launch providers to compete with Elon Musk's Starlink.
On the military front, US President Donald Trump's Golden Dome aims to build out satellite constellations, while space launch is a growing part of defence and spy spending in many countries including New Zealand.
'Strong long-term candidate'
Mahia is this country's only spaceport but its private owner, the NZ-founded US-listed Rocket Lab is so busy that last year New Zealand ranked third-equal with Russia for total launches.
Tāwhaki, though, has struggled till now to get enough customers. A handful of advanced aviation companies use its runway and hangar.
Briefings for Penk's two meetings, with Holt and with Tāwhaki runanga chairs in June revealed two things:
"There is an immediate need for capital investment to support operations and growth," one said.
"The fiscal context suggests that the Crown will be unlikely to provide more investment at the moment," said the other.
There is space money in other budgets, though; for instance, the defence capability plan has put the NZDF on track for what it calls a "large investment in space outputs".
Holt told RNZ the joint venture accepted its responsibility to do the work and "if we do a good job" he was an eternal optimist about government funding in future.
"We're looking for partnerships," he said.
Rapid launches
One of the June briefings to Penk said that Europe and the UK wanted sovereign space launch but might not get the resilience required unless they also looked further afield.
"Tāwhaki considers itself a strong long-term candidate for supporting European vertical launch requirements," it said.
Holt told RNZ resilience and rapid launches were big new drivers for launch, and Tāwhaki had geographical advantages for Europe.
Launch times have been cut from two years to just 10 weeks in some US projects, including in a recent experiment for the US military where Rocket Lab launched its own satellite.
This is especially driven by the Pentagon that is worried it must be able to quickly replace satellites or space weapons taken out by China or Russia in a war in orbit. It has said adding to its launch options creates "a war-winning architecture".
The US government has been looking into overseas launch capabilities, as well as passing a law to charge commercial companies more to use its two main spaceports to cover rising wear-and-tear, congressional reports show.
NATO, too, is looking for options for faster rocket launches in case satellites get damaged or attacked, and New Zealand just joined - as an observer - its STARLIFT programme that is central to that.
