A packed public gallery made its feelings clear as councillors at a 2019 Dunedin City Council meeting where councillors voted to declare a climate emergency. Photo: Linda Robertson Dunedin’s zero carbon goal could end up on the scrap heap as a possible shake-up of the city council’s fight against climate change looms. Councillors will consider a range of changes to emission reduction goals at next week’s Dunedin City Council meeting — from pushing out the city’s net-zero carbon deadline to significantly restructuring emission targets. The council declared a climate emergency in 2019 and brought forward its target of city-wide net zero carbon emissions from 2050 to 2030. The council then adopted an emissions reduction plan in 2023, which concluded achieving the target would require co-ordinated action by government, community and business sectors to ‘‘pull all the available levers as hard as possible’’. In his report for Wednesday’s council meeting, zero carbon senior policy analyst Rory McLean said progress had been made in reducing emissions. An inventory presented to councillors in April showed Dunedin’s total net emissions reduced 9% over seven years to 2024-25. However, changes in national policy settings, economic conditions and updated data meant net zero by 2030 was ‘‘no longer considered achievable’’. The council conceded early last year meeting its target was unlikely, regardless of the level of investment. In light of this, the council might choose to consider adopting a refreshed target framework, Mr McLean said. His report presented five options, including retaining the 2030 target. Modelling found the earliest Dunedin could reach net zero was 2042. This was under a ‘‘high ambition’’ scenario which required significant changes in central government policy and higher levels of local investment. Under an ‘‘accelerate ambition’’ scenario, of minor government policy changes and some additional local investment, net zero would be achieved in 2044. In a ‘‘business as usual’’ case, Dunedin reached net zero in 2047. Mr McLean noted in each scenario Dunedin was expected to reach net zero earlier than the government’s New Zealand-wide 2050 target. Changes would also be considered next week for Dunedin’s reduction targets for biogenic methane, which is heavily associated with the agriculture and waste sectors. It is excluded from New Zealand’s and the city council’s net zero goal but could be included in a new goal for Dunedin. If councillors vote to amend the targets, a report would present options for the new goal’s ‘‘level of ambition’’ later this year. April’s emissions inventory showed Dunedin’s gross, or total, emissions dropped 13% in the seven years to 2024-25. This was largely due to lower emissions from the transport (8% reduction), waste (50%) and stationary energy (19%) sectors. Reduced transport emissions were largely driven by reductions in marine freight (7%), cruise ship (30%), and air travel emissions (32%) over the period. ruby.shaw@odt.co.nz The options Five options for Dunedin’s city-wide emissions target (excluding biogenic methane): • Retaining the net zero carbon 2030 target. • Adopting a new ‘‘plausible’’ target year for net zero. • Making no net zero claim, but setting a gross emissions reduction target by a specified year. • Setting a ‘‘carbon-budget’’ of emissions for a period of time. • A two-stage approach — adopting a near-term gross emissions reduction target and a long-term net zero ambition target.
