If you live in coastal Otago, the next three months are likely to be warmer and drier than average.
For those in Southland, inland Otago and the West Coast, the picture is not quite so rosy.
Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said an El Nino weather phenomenon was developing over New Zealand, bringing above normal air pressure over the Tasman Sea, leading to more southwesterly-quarter winds than normal across the country between July and September.
"Episodic easterlies are also possible, particularly early in the three month period, owing to a La Nina-like lag effect in the atmosphere.
"The potential easing of above-average sea surface temperatures and a reduction in northerly air flows are expected to make for a season that has less frequent spells of above-average temperatures.
"Short-but-sharp cold snaps are also likely, such as what’s expected in early July."
On the West Coast, the Southern Alps and foothills, in inland Otago and in Southland, temperatures were about equally likely to be above or near average, he said.
"Marine heatwave conditions remain present in coastal waters.
"The warmer-than-average seas may reduce the intensity of cold from southerly air masses, especially near the coast."
He said rainfall totals were about equally likely to be near or above normal, and southwest-quarter winds were expected to increase in frequency and strength over the period, likely bringing periods of wetter conditions.
As a result, soil moisture levels were likely to be near normal, while river flows were about equally likely to be near or above normal.
Along coastal Otago, temperatures were also about equally likely to be above or near average, but rainfall totals were about equally likely to be below or near normal.
"More frequent and stronger-than-normal southwesterly-quarter winds may shelter the region, leading to dry spells.
"Soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal, while river flows are about equally likely to be below normal or near normal," he said.
