Comment: National likely option for Peters

NZ First leader Winston Peters. Photo: Getty Images
NZ First leader Winston Peters. Photo: Getty Images
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters will start consulting  his party, his reduced caucus and the party board today as he makes up his mind on who to join in coalition, writes Dene Mackenzie.

The danger for Mr Peters is no matter who he chooses, NZ First is faced with annihilation in 2020.His most likely option is to form some sort of bond with National, which nearly one in two voters supported on Saturday.

Mr Peters will not deal with Act or the Greens, reducing the options for Prime Minister Bill English and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern.

Act leader and sole MP David Seymour has to sit on the cross bench for Mr Peters to support National, or the Greens will have to provide confidence and supply outside of government for Mr Peters to support Ms Ardern.

The best option for Mr Peters, who may well be facing his last term after losing his Northland seat, is providing confidence and supply to National and sitting outside of Cabinet with a few "baubles of power" to keep him and his eight other MPs content.

There is plenty of common ground between Labour and NZ First, just as there is between National and NZ First.

Mr Peters claimed throughout the campaign both major parties were guilty of stealing his party’s policies, and he was correct.

As of Saturday night, National had 46% of the vote and 58 MPs. With support from NZ First’s nine seats, National would have a comfortable majority.

Labour received nearly 36% of the vote and has 45 MPs. With NZ First, Ms Ardern would have 54 votes, needing the seven Green MPs to take it to 61 and a slim majority.

Mr Peters has been sacked twice and resigned once from previous times he has been in government and there is no guarantee he will not pull out again. If he does, an early election will spell the end of his party.

Green leader James Shaw has ruled out going into any agreement with National, something he may live to regret if Mr Peters insists the Greens again stay outside of government.

Mr Peters may have the cards to play before October 7, but it is not a no-trumps hand.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

 

At a glance
 

Areas of common agreement between National and NZ First include:

Social development: Both National and NZ First committed to engaging with youth, getting people back to work and trade training.

Tertiary education: Some areas of agreement between National and NZ First.

Housing: Most common area of agreement on getting people into affordable housing.

Health: Some room for negotiation on healthcare for elderly and young.

Referendum on the Maori seats: It is a NZ First policy and was a National policy.
 

Area of disagreement

Superannuation: NZ First wants superannuation eligibility to remain at 65; National wants to move it up to 67 by 2040.

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