The Labour Party’s campaign launch yesterday was buoyed by its own poll putting it just three points adrift of National - and bringing heartening news for Labour’s potential support partner the Greens.
The poll, by UMR - Labour’s polling company - which ended on August 17, had National down three points from the week before to 40%, although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.
Labour was up one point since the week before to 37% - the same level of support it had in the One News Colmar Brunton poll released last week.
While the Green Party was on 4.3% in that Colmar Brunton poll - below the 5% threshold to return to Parliament - it had stayed on 8% in the UMR poll. NZ First was also holding strong - up one to 9% - and would still probably be the kingmaker on those results.
The poll shows less movement among the smaller parties than the Colmar Brunton.
As Labour closes the gap with National, it is expected the large parties will dominate, potentially squeezing the parties as voters move to shore up their own side, rather than toy with a strategic vote.
The move down for National in the UMR over the space of the week is similar to that in the Colmar Brunton poll in which National dropped from 47% to 44%. The drop in both will worry National as it contends with the buzz around Labour leader Jacinda Ardern.
In National’s favour, the majority of people were still optimistic about the country’s direction - 56% to 35% negative.
Ms Ardern’s first two weeks in the job had impressed voters - her favourability rating was 70% to Prime Minister Bill English’s 57%. And only 10% viewed her unfavourably compared with 37% for Mr English.
• The UMR poll canvasses 750 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.
