Global Insight: Ukraine war has 'a way to go'

Only a clear winner and a clear loser will bring the war in Ukraine to an end, Professor Robert Patman predicts.

This week, former New Zealand soldier Kane Te Tai paid with his life for fighting with Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

Global Insight’s Bruce Munro wanted to know what price Prof Patman thought countries on both sides of the conflict were willing to pay to get the outcome they wanted.

Both sides had entrenched positions, with no real room for a diplomatic solution, the University of Otago international relations specialist replied.

"There is little scope for compromise," Prof Patman said.

He said Ukraine had made it clear it would not accept any diplomatic deal that involved Russia retaining territory it had annexed.

And, Russia’s Vladimir Putin had put his leadership on the line by invading Ukraine in hopes of building a "greater Russia".

"I don’t think Mr Putin will want to retreat because he will be fearful for his political survival in Moscow."

The war has "a way to go", Prof Patman believes.

"My prediction is that it will be fought until one side prevails."

Prof Patman suggested Ukraine would soon launch an offensive to try to liberate Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

In the Global Insight interview, he also discussed the significance of this week’s visits by China’s Xi Jinping to Russia and Japan’s Fumio Kishida to Ukraine.

Full interview: