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A new poll shows the coalition has slightly extended its lead over the left bloc thanks to a surge in support for New Zealand First, while both the major parties remain languishing in the 20s.
The Taxpayers' Union Curia poll has National and Labour neck and neck: since its September results, National dropped to 28.5% (down 0.5 percentage points), while Labour rose to 28.2% (up 2.3).
The Greens dipped slightly to 13.3% (down 0.6), while NZ First rocketed to 12% (up 3.6).
Act is on 9.2% (down 1.3), Opportunity reached 4.8% (up 0.3) and Te Pāti Māori has dropped to 1.4% (down 0.6).
On these numbers, National, NZ First and Act have a path to power with 65 seats.
However, the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 55 and be unable to form a coalition with Opportunity out of reach of Parliament.
The pollster - which also carries out National's internal party polling - noted due to the margin of error there is a 42% chance Opportunity is above the five percent threshold to enter Parliament.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, National's Christopher Luxon is unchanged on 21.2%, while Labour's Chris Hipkins has leapt 4.1 points to 21%.
NZ First's Winston Peters is up 3.2 points to 13.9%, Act's David Seymour is down 1.8 points to 6%, and the Greens' Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.1 points to 4.9%.
*The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Thursday, October 1 and Monday, October 5, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 2.5% were undecided on the party vote question.



