The unexpected death of Vladimir Putin’s former transport minister marks a fork in the road for Russia - one that also impacts New Zealand, Prof Robert Patman says.
The international relations specialist says President Putin faces stark choices after the apparent suicide of Roman Starovoit within hours of being removed by Putin from the role he held for just 13 months.
It is also an important moment for New Zealand, whose Indo-Pacific security interests need Ukraine to prevail against Russia’s invasion, the University of Otago academic says.
‘‘Despite the geographical distance between New Zealand and Ukraine, the outcome of the war is vital,’’ Prof Patman says.
Starovoit was governor of Kursk region, bordering Ukraine, before his promotion to Minister of Transport, in May, 2024.
Last year, Ukrainian troops broke through and seized territory in Kursk.
On Monday, Starovoit was sacked amid allegations federal money given to fortify the Kursk-Ukraine border disappeared during his time as governor.
Later that day he was found dead, with a gunshot wound to the head and a pistol allegedly beside the the body.
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Prof Patman says parallels are being drawn between Russia under Putin and the USSR under dictator Joseph Stalin in the 1930s.
‘‘When Stalin dismissed ministers, they felt they either had to kill themselves or they would face long-term prison sentences with their families suffering in the process.
‘‘If you fall out of political favour, there's no way out.’’
But because Putin has concentrated so much power in his hands, he is in danger of being the focus of blame by Russians for their woes.
Russia faces significant economic challenges, is experiencing food shortages and has suffered more than a million casualties since invading Ukraine in February, 2022.
In that context, Starovoit was a scapegoat for the embarrassment of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.
‘‘But [Putin] may run out of excuses if the problems escalate - that's the danger he faces.’’
Prof Patman says Putin’s two options are withdrawing from Ukraine - which Putin would find personally untenable and politically lethal - or continuing a war he appears unable to win - risking someone inside his circle deciding they could do a better job.
‘‘So this is a very fork-in-the-road moment for the Putin regime.’’
It also makes it a significant moment for Aotearoa.
The outcome of the war is the top strategic issue for New Zealand because it could embolden or dampen the ambitions of China in the Indo-Pacific, Prof Patman says.
‘‘If the regime comes under pressure in Moscow and has to either retreat or is forced out of power, that would be good news for New Zealand.
‘‘If Mr Putin's invasion of Ukraine was successful, that would be very bad news for our country.’’
