At talks about Ukraine, New Zealand needs to make sure Vladimir Putin is not rewarded for invading his neighbour, Prof Robert Patman says.
Global Insight has been told New Zealand will have a presence at today’s meeting of 35 allies of Ukraine who have gathered in London to work on a new ceasefire proposal.
‘‘New Zealand has a huge stake in the outcome of [this]... ceasefire proposal,’’ Prof Patman says.
‘‘I think New Zealand's job is to make sure, while it welcomes a ceasefire, that negotiations do not lead to substantial territorial concessions to the Putin regime.’’
Although United States president Donald Trump and Russian president Putin have postponed ceasefire talks, Ukraine’s allies - known as the Coalition of the Willing - are meeting to put together their own ceasefire proposal.
A Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) spokesperson confirmed to Global Insight that New Zealand intended to be represented at the meeting, either in-person or virtually.
At the talks, New Zealand must take a strong stand to defend the rule of law, University of Otago’s Prof Patman says.
‘‘If Putin succeeds in getting a reward for stealing territory from a neighbouring country, that's a dangerous erosion of international law on which this country depends globally.’’
Such an outcome could also embolden China in relation to Taiwan or its efforts to influence Pacific Island nations.
The MFAT spokesperson said the talks were an attempt to secure ‘‘just and lasting peace’’ for Ukraine.
‘‘We are active participants in the ongoing discussions."
Asked what long-term support New Zealand would give Ukraine and whether it could include sending peace-keeping soldiers, the spokesperson said such decisions would be made by Cabinet.
Global Insight understands Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters, although in Europe this week, will not be attending the Coalition of the Willing meeting.
In this episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also discusses Putin’s unwillingness to have a ceasefire, the likelihood of Trump disengaging from efforts to find peace and two possible endings to the war - Putin voluntarily withdrawing his troops or Ukraine forcing him to do so.
‘‘[Putin] knows there's no way back for him. So that leaves the most obvious option; that Ukraine must be armed to win this war.
‘‘And it is winning the war... We're seeing the tide of the war change quite dramatically in the past couple of months.’’
