Since its formation in 2016 the centrist party has flirted with the possibility of cresting the 5% threshold to elect candidates to Parliament but never actually come close to doing so: its best result was 2.4% of the party vote in 2017.
Opportunity appointed a new, articulate and energetic leader, Qiulae Wong, in late 2025, and she has been on a determined PR campaign ever since, trying to revive interest in the party.
Her efforts have helped Opportunity remain a fixture in the political conversation, albeit most polling has had the party in the 2-3% range.
The Roy Morgan poll, however, could be a game-changer. Opportunity polled at 6%, its highest rating, and comfortably inside the MMP threshold.
Even if you erred on the conservative side to account for the poll’s margin of error, it is an argument that Opportunity should be taken seriously.
The party, obviously, argues that, and was quick to claim that momentum was on its side and that New Zealanders ‘‘were ready for a new force in politics’’.
That is debatable, but taken as a whole the Roy Morgan poll reinforces a recurring theme in all public polls — a dissatisfaction with the two traditional main parties.
On Roy Morgan’s latest results National is 7.6% down on its election night 2023 vote, and Labour is down 0.4%. Their combined share in the poll was 58%, leaving a large slice of the vote to be contested by others.
Of those parties already in Parliament the Greens, New Zealand First and Act New Zealand are all polling above their election 2023 results, leaving about a tenth of the vote up for grabs.
Opportunity would dearly like to seize those votes, and maybe a few more besides from the main parties.
Voters — or at least those talking to pollsters — seem to have decided a plague on both your houses and cast their gaze further afield.
This would not surprise residents in countries which have a long-standing tradition of governments elected by proportional representation: a proliferation of minor parties being elected and multi-party coalitions being formed are the norm, not the exception.
What has mitigated against similar developments in New Zealand is the high and, some would argue, almost insurmountable 5% threshold.
Indeed, for a party like Te Pāti Māori its avenue in to Parliament was electorate seats, not party votes.
Act NZ, the Greens and NZ First have similarly relied, at various times, on winning a seat as insurance so that they can remain in Parliament.
New Zealanders do not like to ‘‘waste’’ their vote, and have thus far shunned minor parties due to a not unreasonable concern that a vote for them would not result in representation in the House.
This has created a vicious circle which has mitigated against new voices entering our democratic conversation — but Opportunity’s 6% might offer a chance of breaking that.
Of course, it remains to be seen if such polling is sustainable. Given the undercurrent of dissatisfaction with mainstream politics fuelling rising interest in other parties this result may be a simple, cost-free protest vote rather than a genuine expression of support for team teal.
It has taken hard work for Opportunity to get to this point, but in many ways the hard work actually has to start now.
If a decent portion of that 6% is indeed a protest rather than a profession, Opportunity now needs to sell those people, and others, on its policies.
Unlike some parties, it has already released much of its policy platform and some of it — notably its taxation policy — is radically different from what New Zealanders are used to.
Many will take quite some convincing that a universal citizen's income, a land value tax to lower house prices, and a compulsory superannuation system are just what this country needs.
But if Opportunity can sustain its polling in the realms of 5%, it has a decent chance of having its voice heard.
