District population forecast to grow

Irrigation, new vineyards in the Waitaki Valley and the possibility of a $200 million cement plant at Weston are the key factors which will attract more people to live in the Waitaki district.

That is the conclusion in a major report prepared for the Waitaki District Council by consultant Rationale, which looks at future population trends.

It predicts the decline in the number of people living in the Waitaki district for at least a decade will be reversed - rising from 20,233 at present to a peak of 21,994 in 2021 and then declining slightly to 21,298 in 2036.

Growth is predicted in most townships, especially the rural area surrounding Oamaru, Oamaru itself and holiday towns such as Otematata and Omarama.

But consultant Edward Guy acknowledged that depended on several factors, including Holcim (New Zealand) deciding to build its new cement plant near Weston and continued growth in irrigation.

‘‘Without the cement plant and irrigation, things look sad,'' he warned yesterday.

The report was presented to the council's strategy committee yesterday and will form the basis for future planning, including the preparation of the 2009-19 long term council community plan (LTCCP).

Some councillors found the report disappointing, particularly its dependency on projects going ahead.

‘‘The challenge is not coping with growth, but developing it,'' Cr Jim Hopkins said.

However, he found the report's approach - ‘‘conservative cautious, quantified and thorough'' - made it a valid document for planning purposes.

The report predicted the current housing stock would rise from 10,392 units to 12,145 in 2021 and 13,303 in 2036 - bigger increases than the population rise suggested.

Part of that was because of changes in the size of families, a growing elderly population and the construction of holiday homes meant the number of residents per household would fall.

The biggest increase in population - 50.6% - was predicted for the area surrounding
Oamaru,including Ardgowan, Weston and Cape Wanbrow.

Oamaru was expected to grow, along with Kurow Moeraki, Otematata, the Waitaki Valley and Omarama.

Towns expected to decline included Hampden, Kakanui Palmerston and Oamaru central.

Three factors were identified as causing future population growth;

Two irrigation schemes - the Irrigation North Otago Downlands and the Benmore schemes - were expected to result in 1620 additional residents and 667 new dwellings by 2036.

The Holcim cement plant which could be operating by 2016 was expected to need 100 workers, with 70% coming from outside the district.

During construction of the plant, scheduled to start in 2011 450 workers would be required with 85% from outside the district.

Winery development was conservatively expected to expand from 100ha to 500ha by 2036 attracting 303 residents.

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